BTC
Updated
Summary
Bitcoin (BTC) is the native asset of the Bitcoin network, a proof-of-work blockchain running since 2009. Its supply is capped at 21 million coins, and new coins come only from mining. The block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks: the April 2024 halving cut it to 3.125 BTC, and the next cut, to 1.5625 BTC, is expected in 2028. About 20.10 million BTC circulate, worth about $1.63 trillion at $81,015 on 2026-10-15. BTC has no issuer and pays holders nothing; its price rests on demand for a scarce monetary asset, which Fed Chair Powell called "a competitor for gold" in 2024.
Key numbers
BTC price (USD): $81,014.65 (as of 2026-10-15). Source: coingecko.com
BTC market capitalization: $1.628 trillion (as of 2026-10-15). Source: coingecko.com
Circulating supply / maximum supply: 20.099 million / 21 million BTC (as of 2026-10-15). Source: coingecko.com
Block subsidy (since block 840,000; halves to 1.5625 BTC at block 1,050,000, expected 2028): 3.125 BTC (as of 2026-10-15). Source: bitcoin.org
US spot BTC ETFs: total net assets / cumulative net inflows (SoSoValue): $104.828B / $56.956B (as of 2026-10-14). Source: kucoin.com
US spot BTC ETFs: net flow, October 2026 month to date: -$539.8 million (as of 2026-10-14). Source: tftc.io
Strategy (MSTR) BTC holdings / average cost: 848,250 BTC / $75,444 per BTC (as of 2026-10-11). Source: sec.gov
BTC held by public companies (CoinGecko, 180 companies): ~1,302,063 BTC (~6.20% of supply) (as of 2026-10-15). Source: coingecko.com
Estimated US government BTC (tracker estimate, not audited; no confirmed purchases): ~328,372 BTC (as of 2026-09-28). Source: coinpedia.org
Network hashrate (estimated): ~1,075.4 EH/s (as of 2026-10-13). Source: tokenpost.com
Fees as share of miner revenue (Glassnode): ~0.69% (10-year low) (as of 2026-08-12). Source: cointelegraph.com
All-time high (CoinGecko; reached 2025-10-06): $126,080 (as of 2026-10-15). Source: coingecko.com
Timeline
2026-10-15 — BTC trades near $81,150 after September CPI comes in at 3.7%, above forecast; about $1 billion is liquidated. (Source: analyticsinsight.net)
2026-10-14 — Spot bitcoin ETFs post a $261 million net outflow; total net assets are $104.8 billion. (Source: kucoin.com)
2026-10-13 — Estimated hashrate reaches about 1,075 EH/s, up from about 850 EH/s in February. (Source: tokenpost.com)
2026-10-12 — Strategy reports 250 more BTC, for 848,250 BTC at a $75,444 average cost. (Source: sec.gov)
2026-10-07 — Spot bitcoin ETFs lose $487.1 million, October's largest outflow day so far. (Source: tftc.io)
2026-09-21 — Spot bitcoin ETFs take in $999 million, the largest day of 2026. (Source: news.bitcoin.com)
2026-09-16 — A House committee advances the ARMA reserve bill 28-21; it authorizes no purchases. (Source: decrypt.co)
2026-09-15 — Senate cloture on CLARITY (H.R. 3633) fails 49-50; BTC falls to $75,038. (Source: thedefiant.io)
2026-09-02 — BTC drops below $77,000 as U.S. strikes on Iran push Brent near $93. (Source: coingape.com)
2026-08-12 — Glassnode data put fees at about 0.69% of miner revenue, a 10-year low. (Source: cointelegraph.com)
2026-03-17 — SEC and CFTC jointly name bitcoin a digital commodity, not a security. (Source: jenner.com)
2025-10-06 — BTC sets its record, about $126,000 (sources range $126,080 to $126,210). (Source: kucoin.com)
2025-03-06 — Executive order creates the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve from forfeited coins, with budget-neutral acquisition only. (Source: whitehouse.gov)
2024-12-04 — Fed Chair Powell calls bitcoin "just like gold only it's virtual, it's digital." (Source: theblock.co)
2024-04-20 — Fourth halving at block 840,000 cuts the subsidy to 3.125 BTC. (Source: bitcoin.org)
Key actors and links
Bitcoin network (actor:bitcoin-network): Native network; miners take all fees and issuance, so usage pays miners, not holders.
Crypto market (market:crypto-market): BTC is about $1.63 trillion of the market and sets its direction.
BTC monetary premium / store of value (theme:btc-monetary-premium): The demand thesis: a monetary premium on fixed supply, with no cash flow underneath.
Cryptocurrency (theme:cryptocurrency): The first and largest cryptocurrency; the category's reference asset.
Stablecoin-Bitcoin-SOFR settlement rail (theme:stablecoin-bitcoin-sofr-rail): Ties BTC demand and leverage to dollar funding conditions.
Strategy (asset:stock-mstr): Owns 848,250 BTC; a levered BTC proxy whose gains go to MSTR shareholders.
ETFs (theme:crypto-etfs): Spot ETFs (~$104.8B) are the largest observable demand channel.
SEC (actor:sec): Named BTC a digital commodity on 2026-03-17; a later Commission could revise it.
CFTC (actor:cftc): Joined the 2026 interpretation; CLARITY would add spot authority.
CLARITY Act (policy:clarity-act): Would codify BTC's commodity status; failed cloture 49-50 on 2026-09-15.
U.S. Senate (actor:us-senate): Blocked CLARITY; reconsideration is possible before the 119th Congress ends.
U.S. Treasury (actor:us-treasury): Administers the reserve of forfeited coins; no confirmed purchases.
Gold (commodity:gold): BTC's monetary comparator; Powell called BTC a competitor for gold.
Federal Reserve (actor:federal-reserve): Rate and inflation surprises move BTC, as with September's hot CPI.
Token-specific value capture (theme:token-value-capture): The pure case: no burn or yield, so holders gain only from net new demand.
Why it matters now
BTC's 2025-2026 story is policy and access without a new high. It set its record near $126,000 on 2025-10-06 and is about 36% below it. A 2025-03-06 executive order created a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve from forfeited coins, with no taxpayer-funded purchases. On 2026-03-17 the SEC and CFTC jointly named bitcoin a digital commodity, not a security. But CLARITY, which would put that status in statute, failed cloture 49-50 on 2026-09-15, and BTC fell to about $75,000. A reserve bill (ARMA) cleared a House committee 28-21 the next day, but it authorizes no purchases.
Demand now runs mainly through intermediaries. US spot ETFs have about $104.8 billion in assets after $57.0 billion of net inflows (SoSoValue, 2026-10-14), yet October flows were about -$540 million through 2026-10-14. Strategy owns 848,250 BTC, about two-thirds of the 1.30 million BTC CoinGecko counts at public companies. Price moves with macro news, such as U.S. strikes on Iran and a hot September CPI. The mechanism is flow against fixed issuance: net new buyers must absorb 3.125 BTC per block. Fees are under 1% of miner revenue, so security leans on a subsidy that halves again in 2028.
Risks and open questions
Bull case: Supply is fixed and issuance keeps falling: 3.125 BTC per block now, 1.5625 BTC after the 2028 halving. Access is broad: ETFs have about $104.8 billion in assets, public companies own about 1.30 million BTC, and the SEC/CFTC interpretation treats BTC as a digital commodity. ETF demand can return fast: one September day brought $999 million. A U.S. reserve barred from disposing of its coins shrinks a seized-coin supply overhang, and hashrate near 1,075 EH/s shows miners still investing in security.
Bear case: Demand is concentrated and cyclical. Strategy alone owns about 4% of supply, funded mainly by MSTR stock sales, so a funding squeeze would slow its purchases. ETF flows turned negative in October, about -$540 million through 2026-10-14. BTC is about 36% below its record and trades as a macro risk asset, falling on oil shocks and hot inflation data. Policy is thinner than it looks: the reserve buys nothing, CLARITY failed, and commodity status is an interpretation. Fees are under 1% of miner revenue, so the security budget depends on price as the subsidy halves.
Falsifiers: - Bull weakens if spot ETFs post a sustained run of net outflows and total net assets fall toward cumulative inflows. - Bull weakens if Strategy stops regular purchases or becomes a net disposer of BTC. - Bear weakens if CLARITY or a successor statute codifies BTC's commodity status. - Bear weakens if fees rise durably to a material share of miner revenue, easing dependence on the subsidy. - Both weaken if BTC's sensitivity to oil and inflation surprises fades for several months.
Value accrual gate: BTC holders receive no protocol cash flow: there is no fee burn, staking yield or dividend. All fees and new issuance go to miners, and issuance dilutes holders by a smaller amount after each halving. Holder value comes only from net new demand: ETF creations, treasury-company purchases and any sovereign buying (none confirmed for the U.S. reserve). Network activity, miner revenue and corporate equity gains (such as MSTR's) do not by themselves reach BTC holders.
What to watch
Next difficulty retarget, estimated slightly lower; a read on miner economics after the hashrate rebound. (~2026-10-18); Source: millionminer.com
Daily spot ETF flows (SoSoValue); whether October's outflows persist. (daily, each U.S. trading day); Source: kucoin.com
Strategy's weekly 8-K holdings update and its funding mix. (weekly; no fixed date); Source: sec.gov
Full House vote on the ARMA reserve bill (H.R. 8957); no Senate companion has passed. (no scheduled date); Source: decrypt.co
Senate reconsideration of CLARITY, or reintroduction next Congress. (no scheduled date; 119th Congress ends January 2027); Source: news.bitcoin.com
Fifth halving cuts the subsidy to 1.5625 BTC, raising the fee share needed to fund security. (block 1,050,000; estimated 2028); Source: bitcoin.org
Any named budget-neutral U.S. BTC acquisition route; AA expects none near term. (no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
AA inference
Inference (AA): BTC is the graph's reference crypto asset. Holder returns depend on net new monetary demand, delivered mostly through ETFs and treasury companies, against a shrinking issuance schedule; network usage reaches holders only indirectly, through miner security, not cash flow. ETF flows, Strategy's purchases and rate or oil shocks are the series to track, and the fee gap after the 2028 halving is the long-run security question.
Sources
Only 21 million bitcoins will ever be created; the number of new bitcoins created is halved over time until issuance stops; blocks need a proof of work; Bitcoin has run since its inception in 2009. (Source: bitcoin.org, accessed 2026-10-15)
Miners earn transaction fees paid by users plus newly created bitcoins issued under a fixed formula. (Source: bitcoin.org, accessed 2026-10-15)
The fourth halving took place on 2024-04-20 at block 840,000, cutting the block reward to 3.125 BTC; the fifth is expected at block 1,050,000 in 2028, cutting it to 1.5625 BTC; halvings occur every 210,000 blocks. (Source: bitcoin.org, accessed 2026-10-15)
CoinGecko showed BTC at $81,014.65, a $1.628 trillion market cap and 20.099 million BTC circulating against a 21 million maximum on 2026-10-15, and lists the all-time high as $126,080. (Source: coingecko.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
Bitcoin reached its all-time high on 2025-10-06 (reported there as $126,210; venues and aggregators differ). (Source: kucoin.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
On 2024-12-04 at the DealBook Summit, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said bitcoin is 'just like gold only it's virtual, it's digital' and 'really a competitor for gold'. (Source: theblock.co, accessed 2026-10-15)
SoSoValue data showed US spot bitcoin ETFs had a $261 million net outflow on 2026-10-14, total net assets of $104.828 billion (6.38% of BTC market cap) and cumulative net inflows of $56.956 billion; Fidelity's FBTC led outflows at $153 million. (Source: kucoin.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
US spot bitcoin ETFs had net flows of about -$539.8 million in October 2026 through 2026-10-14, with the largest outflow day, -$487.1 million, on 2026-10-07. (Source: tftc.io, accessed 2026-10-15)
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $998.95 million net in the 2026-09-21 session, a 2026 high, with IBIT taking $381.37 million; total net assets reached $110.14 billion (SoSoValue). (Source: news.bitcoin.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
Strategy acquired 250 BTC from 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-11 and held 848,250 BTC as of 2026-10-11, bought for $64.00 billion in aggregate at an average $75,444 per BTC. (Source: sec.gov, accessed 2026-10-15)
Strategy held 847,666 BTC on 2026-09-30 and 848,000 BTC on 2026-10-04. (Source: sec.gov, accessed 2026-10-15)
Strategy funded its 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-11 purchase mainly with net proceeds of MSTR stock sales, repurchased $192 million of STRC, and reported a $4.88 billion USD Reserve as of 2026-10-11. (Source: strategy.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
CoinGecko counts about 1,302,063 BTC (about 6.20% of supply) at 180 public companies; Strategy's 848,250 BTC is about 4.04% of supply. (Source: coingecko.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
The 2025-03-06 executive order created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve capitalized with bitcoin forfeited to the government, bars selling deposited bitcoin, and allows only budget-neutral acquisition strategies that impose no incremental cost on taxpayers. (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-15)
BitcoinTreasuries' tracker estimates US government holdings at 328,372 BTC (not an audited Treasury figure), and no open-market purchases for the reserve have been confirmed (as of 2026-09-28). (Source: coinpedia.org, accessed 2026-10-15)
On 2026-09-16 the House Financial Services Committee advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act (H.R. 8957) 28-21 on party lines; it authorizes no bitcoin purchases, bars disposal of deposited bitcoin for 20 years, and still needs a full House vote. (Source: decrypt.co, accessed 2026-10-15)
On 2026-03-17 the SEC and CFTC jointly issued an interpretation naming Bitcoin (BTC) among digital commodities that are not securities; it also says mining generally does not involve a securities offering, and a future administration could change it absent legislation. (Source: jenner.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
On 2026-09-15 Senate cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 (CLARITY) failed 49-50, 11 votes short of 60; Sen. Tillis voted no to preserve a motion to reconsider. (Source: thedefiant.io, accessed 2026-10-15)
CLARITY remains on the Senate calendar; if it does not pass before the 119th Congress ends it must restart in January 2027. (Source: news.bitcoin.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
After the 2026-09-15 CLARITY vote BTC fell to $75,038 and traded near $75,825; spot bitcoin ETFs had $450.33 million of outflows that day. (Source: forklog.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
On 2026-09-02 BTC fell below $77,000 (about $76,762) as U.S. forces struck targets in Iran and Brent rose near $93. (Source: coingape.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
On 2026-10-15 BTC traded near $81,150 after September CPI rose 3.7% year over year versus a 3.6% forecast, with about $1 billion of liquidations in 24 hours. (Source: analyticsinsight.net, accessed 2026-10-15)
Bitcoin hashrate was estimated at about 1,075.4 EH/s on 2026-10-13, up from about 850 EH/s in early February 2026 and versus about 1,160 EH/s in early October 2025; hashrate is inferred from blocks and difficulty. (Source: tokenpost.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
Transaction fees were about 0.69% of miner revenue in August 2026, a 10-year low (Glassnode data), after a 0.52% low in April 2026; fees have been under 1% of miner revenue for almost a year. (Source: cointelegraph.com, accessed 2026-10-15)
Difficulty was 132.72T on 2026-10-03, with the next retarget estimated around 2026-10-18; hashprice was about $40 per PH/s per day in early October (vendor publication citing Luxor). (Source: millionminer.com, accessed 2026-10-15)