Energy
Updated
What it is
Energy is AA's top-level ELSI framework category grouping oil, natural gas/LNG, and related price and disruption indicators used to track how geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks transmit through global energy markets. In 2026 its central reference prices are Brent crude and Asian spot LNG, both of which surged after the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted during the Iran war.
Why it matters lately
Since the February 28, 2026 outbreak of the US/Israel-Iran war, Brent crude spiked above $120/bbl (briefly touching $126) as Iran pressured the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG transits. Asian spot LNG prices surged from $16.81/MMBtu on July 15, 2026 to over $24/MMBtu by late July, a five-month high, as Europe and Asia competed for non-Gulf cargoes.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): Energy-domain indicators in ELSI are the primary transmission channel AA tracks from the Iran war into food, financial-conditions, and inflation nodes.