BOJ policy rate and expected path
Updated
What it is
This indicator tracks the Bank of Japan's current policy interest rate and market/economist expectations for its future path. Since ending negative rates in March 2024, the BOJ has moved gradually off ultra-loose policy, and each meeting is watched for the pace of further hikes versus growth and currency risks.
Why it matters lately
The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% on June 16, 2026, its highest since 1995, citing inflation pressure partly tied to Middle East-driven energy costs from the Iran war. It hiked again to 1.25% on September 18, 2026 (a 7-2 vote), the highest level in three decades, while Governor Ueda avoided committing to further hikes, which sent the yen lower despite the increase.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): BOJ tightening narrows the US-Japan rate differential, a variable AA tracks for yen carry-trade unwind risk to global risk assets.