Fed funds / policy rate
Updated
What it is
The federal funds rate is the target interest rate range set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for overnight bank lending, and it is the Federal Reserve's primary tool for steering U.S. monetary policy. Changes to the rate ripple through borrowing costs, asset prices, and the dollar economy-wide.
Why it matters lately
On September 16, 2026, the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, the first increase since July 2023, citing elevated inflation despite solid growth and stable unemployment. Sixteen of eighteen FOMC participants indicated they expect at least one more hike before year-end, though Chair Kevin Warsh filed no personal rate projection, and futures markets were pricing roughly an 87% chance of a further move.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): ELSI uses this indicator as the anchor node for its broader Fed-liquidity composite and for carry-trade and repatriation-flow comparisons.