Oil inventories
Updated
What it is
Oil inventories measure the stockpiled volume of crude oil and refined petroleum products held in commercial and strategic storage, published weekly in the United States by the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report and tracked internationally through OECD inventory data. Inventory levels relative to historical averages serve as a real-time gauge of the physical tightness or slack in oil markets.
Why it matters lately
For the week ending July 17, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) stood at 411.7 million barrels, 6% below the 2021-2025 five-year average, while distillate inventories were 10% below their five-year average. US refineries operated at 96.1% capacity utilization, processing 17.1 million barrels per day, while crude imports' four-week average of 5.6 million barrels per day was running 11% below a year earlier.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): Persistently below-average US inventories through mid-2026 indicate the physical oil market has not fully re-stocked after the Iran war disruption, keeping a supply-tightness risk premium embedded in AA's energy-shock models.