Rerouting capacity
Updated
What it is
Rerouting capacity measures the volume of cargo, especially oil and gas, that alternative transport routes can absorb when a primary chokepoint is disrupted or closed. For Gulf oil exporters, the key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz is Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline (Petroline), which carries crude overland from the Abqaiq field to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz entirely.
Why it matters lately
During the 2026 Iran war, Saudi Arabia ramped its East-West Pipeline (Petroline) to its full operating capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day, its established contingency ceiling, to reroute crude away from the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Because Petroline capacity (7 mb/d) is well below total Gulf export volumes through Hormuz (around 20 million barrels per day of oil passes through the strait), this rerouting option could only partially offset a prolonged Hormuz closure.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): Petroline's 7 million-barrel-per-day ceiling, now fully utilized, defines the hard limit of Gulf rerouting capacity that AA uses to model residual Hormuz-closure supply risk even after maximum pipeline diversion.