U.S. 10Y and 30Y yields and velocity
Updated
What it is
This indicator tracks the level and rate of change of long-dated US Treasury yields, specifically the 10-year note and 30-year bond, which serve as benchmarks for global borrowing costs, mortgage rates, and investor expectations around inflation and fiscal risk. Yields rise when bond prices fall, which happens when investors demand more compensation for inflation risk, large deficits, or weaker foreign demand for Treasuries. Tracking the rate of change, not just the level, matters because a fast move can signal disorderly selling rather than a gradual repricing. The US Treasury publishes daily par-yield-curve rates, and the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis maintains the longest public history of these series through its FRED database.
Why it matters lately
The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5% in September 2026, touching roughly 5.04% on September 16, the day the Federal Reserve raised rates, and holding near its highest level since 2007 into late September 2026. The 30-year yield climbed above 5.6% in 2026, a level last seen in 2002, as persistent inflation, large deficits, and a more hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh pushed long-term borrowing costs higher. These moves coincided with rising Japanese government bond yields as the Bank of Japan tightened policy through 2026, with cross-market commentary linking JGB moves to spillover pressure on US yields and the yen.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): AA uses the level and speed of change in long-dated US yields as a global-bond-market confirmation check on dollar, equity, and crypto-liquidity signals tracked elsewhere in the graph.