U.S. headline/core CPI
Updated
What it is
The Consumer Price Index is the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly measure of the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. Headline CPI includes all items, including volatile food and energy prices, while core CPI strips out food and energy to show an underlying inflation trend. The BLS publishes the report roughly two weeks after each reference month ends, and it is one of the most closely watched inputs into Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Why it matters lately
The August 2026 CPI report, released September 11, 2026, showed headline inflation at 3.4% year over year, up 0.4% on the month and driven in part by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices, while core CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.4% year over year, down slightly from 2.5% in July. That hotter-than-expected monthly core print landed days before the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 meeting, at which the Fed raised its target rate 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% under Chair Kevin Warsh, who cited inflation that had stayed above target for more than five years.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): AA treats the monthly CPI print as a direct input into its Federal Reserve policy-path expectations, since core inflation surprises have been a proximate driver of recent rate-hike odds.