FX
Updated
What it is
FX (foreign exchange) is the global, decentralized over-the-counter market where currencies are traded, underpinning international trade, investment, and central-bank policy transmission. Average daily global FX turnover rose from about $7.5 trillion in April 2022 to roughly $9.6 trillion in April 2025, per the Bank for International Settlements' triennial survey. It operates nearly continuously across time zones with no single central exchange.
Why it matters lately
Since the 2026 Iran war began February 28, FX markets have been volatile as oil surged above $100 a barrel on Hormuz disruption fears; the yen weakened roughly 1.5% since the war started and traded near 160 per dollar, prompting Japan's finance minister to warn against speculative moves. The dollar has gained support from the US's relative energy independence as terms-of-trade effects moved back to the center of currency pricing during 2026.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): FX is the primary transmission channel through which Middle East and Black Sea conflict shocks propagate into global asset prices tracked across the ELSI graph.