U.S. Treasuries
Updated
What it is
U.S. Treasuries are debt securities issued by the U.S. government, ranging from short-term bills to 30-year bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield is the benchmark reference rate for mortgages, corporate borrowing and global asset pricing, and it rises when bond prices fall — reflecting higher expected inflation, tighter Fed policy, or greater concern about government borrowing.
Why it matters lately
Treasury yields sold off sharply in September 2026: the 10-year yield broke above 5% around September 15, its highest since July 2007, then climbed further to about 5.2% by September 24 as the 30-year yield reached roughly 5.5%, a level last seen in June 2004. The selloff combined surging energy prices and inflation risk from the Iran war with the Fed's September 16, 2026 quarter-point hike to 3.75-4.00%, its first increase since 2023.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): The Treasury yield curve is ELSI's reference safe-rate node, setting the discount rate and funding cost that the Fed, dollar-funding and risk-asset nodes all key off of.