Shipping insurance
Updated
What it is
War-risk insurance is a supplemental marine policy, priced separately from standard hull and cargo cover, that compensates shipowners for losses from war, piracy, terrorism and related perils in designated high-risk zones. Underwriters price it as a percentage of a vessel's hull value and can raise rates within days when a region such as the Strait of Hormuz is reclassified as higher risk.
Why it matters lately
War-risk premiums for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz surged repeatedly through 2026 as the Iran war escalated and a June 2026 ceasefire memorandum collapsed within about three weeks. By mid-2026, rates of roughly 3-10% of hull value were common versus about 0.25% before the war — meaning a $100 million tanker could pay $3-10 million per voyage instead of roughly $250,000. Insurers stayed cautious even after de-escalation attempts, expecting premiums to remain elevated given doubts any truce would hold.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): Shipping insurance costs are a fast-moving, quotable proxy in ELSI for real-time Hormuz/Gulf war risk, feeding directly into the freight and energy-price nodes.