European rearmament
Updated
What it is
European rearmament refers to the sustained increase in European and Canadian defense budgets, procurement, and industrial capacity since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, now treated by most governments as a structural rather than temporary shift. It encompasses both headline spending-to-GDP targets and underlying commitments to expand ammunition, vehicle, and air-defense production capacity.
Why it matters lately
European NATO allies and Canada are projected to increase defense spending nearly 11% to $634 billion in 2026 (excluding the US), up from $571 billion in 2025, bringing combined core-plus-related defense spending to 3.93% of GDP versus just 1.62% in 2021. At the July 7-8, 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, allies reaffirmed a prior commitment to raise core defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 plus 1.5% on defense-adjacent spending.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): The gap between 2026's 3.93% actual combined spend and the 2035 target of 5% implies years of further compounding increases are already locked into national budget plans regardless of how or when the Russia-Ukraine war itself resolves.