Food inflation
Updated
What it is
Food inflation is the rate of change in food prices, tracked domestically via components of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (e.g., food-at-home/grocery prices) and globally via the FAO Food Price Index. It is driven by input costs such as energy, fertilizer, and freight, as well as weather and crop-yield shocks.
Why it matters lately
US food prices rose 3% in the 12 months ending July 2026 per BLS data published August 12, 2026, while grocery (food-at-home) prices rose 2.7% year-over-year through June 2026, with beef and veal up 11.8% amid a 75-year-low US cattle herd. Globally, the FAO Food Price Index climbed to 136.0 in September 2026, its highest level since November 2022, as Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea shipping disruptions pushed cereal prices up 5.1% month-on-month.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): ELSI links food-inflation readings to the broader 2026 energy/fertilizer/freight shock chain originating from the Iran war.