Market volatility

Updated

What it is

Market volatility measures the magnitude and speed of price swings across asset classes, most commonly tracked for US equities via the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which captures expected 30-day S&P 500 volatility implied by options prices. Spikes in the VIX typically coincide with geopolitical shocks, sudden shifts in rate expectations, or liquidity stress.

Why it matters lately

The VIX jumped 10.17% to 16.44 on September 1, 2026, after US strikes on Iranian targets, part of a volatile year that saw record equity highs followed by a September selloff. That same period saw a sharp bond-market selloff, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching about 4.595%, roughly a one-year high, and the 30-year bond auctioned at 5.127%, its highest since 2007, as Iran-war-driven inflation fears dimmed hopes for rate cuts.

Asymmetric Analytics view

Inference (AA): ELSI uses VIX spikes as a cross-check on the severity of Iran-war and rate-shock events feeding its market-stress nodes.