Selective maritime disruption / impaired confidence
Updated
What it is
Selective maritime disruption is AA's label for a middle path between leaving the Strait of Hormuz fully open and physically closing it: costs imposed on shipping through mines, missile or drone strikes on individual vessels, and the resulting spike in war-risk insurance and shipowner caution, without a formally declared or verifiable blockade. It is a scenario/measure concept describing leverage exercised through impaired confidence rather than outright closure, and does not itself assert that full closure has or has not occurred at any given moment.
Why it matters lately
By mid-to-late July 2026, war-risk insurance premiums for Hormuz transits had risen from roughly 0.25% of hull value pre-war to about 7.5%-10%, near four times the five-year average, and some war-risk underwriters advised shipowners to pause voyages while the IMO said sailings should be avoided 'as long as the safety and security of crews cannot be assured.' Iran's IRGC said two tankers struck mines in the southern strait in July 2026 (a claim US Central Command denied), and by September 2026 Iran tied any reopening to political conditions such as reparations and lifted sanctions rather than declaring an unconditional blockade.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): AA treats this as the more probable and durable channel of Iranian leverage compared with full closure, because it is deniable, reversible, and imposes economic cost without requiring Iran to sustain a declared act of war against all shipping.