Shipping and logistics disruption
Updated
What it is
This theme tracks disruption to global ocean shipping and supply chains from chokepoint closures, vessel attacks, and war risk — events that raise freight rates, insurance costs, and transit times. It is measured through concrete market indicators such as container freight indices, tanker day-rates, and chokepoint transit volumes. The 2026 Iran war, Houthi Red Sea attacks, and the Russia-Ukraine war are its primary current drivers.
Why it matters lately
Since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March 2026 following U.S./Israeli strikes, Gulf very large crude carrier (VLCC) day-rates have risen to over half a million dollars a day — roughly five times pre-war levels — and the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, a proxy for Gulf-to-China tanker rates, surged about 1,300% over the following year, becoming the best-performing U.S.-listed ETF of 2026. Drewry's World Container Index rose 8% to $2,123 per 40-foot container by its March 12, 2026 assessment and continued climbing as carriers rerouted around the Gulf.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): ELSI links this theme to inflation and chokepoint-bypass nodes (e.g., the Saudi Red Sea export bypass) as a shared transmission mechanism from the Iran war into global prices.