Ukrainian deep strikes
Updated
What it is
Ukraine has carried out an escalating campaign of long-range drone and missile strikes against targets deep inside Russian territory, especially oil refineries, fuel depots, and defense-industrial sites, through 2025 and 2026. In June 2026 Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 11 Russian oil refineries plus seven fuel-logistics facilities and eight military factories in a single month, with some strikes reaching over 2,000 kilometers from the front, including the Omsk refinery deep in western Siberia. Ukrainian officials said deep-strike missions rose 1,150% since the start of 2026, and the April 2026 refinery campaign pushed Russian crude processing to its lowest level in more than 16 years.
Why it matters lately
Analysts at Jamestown and Meduza argued through 2026 that Russia's air-defense network is structurally unable to protect refineries and industrial sites spread across its vast territory, pointing to successful June 2026 strikes that knocked out both primary distillation units at the Moscow oil refinery despite Russian defenses. The campaign has been cited by analysts as evidence that Russian air defense is not impenetrable, contrary to some earlier characterizations.
Asymmetric Analytics view
Inference (AA): AA tags this capability as a counter-indicator against bullish Russian-air-defense narratives used in adjacent escalation-risk playbooks.