Russian ruble
Updated
Summary
The Russian ruble (RUB) is the currency of the Russian Federation, issued by the Bank of Russia. The bank says it floats: it sets no target or limit for the exchange rate's level or pace and deals in the FX market for financial-stability purposes only. Two things still steer it. Under the budget (fiscal) rule, the bank buys and sells foreign currency and gold for the Ministry of Finance, tied to a baseline oil price in the Budget Code, and the Governor says this limits how far global oil prices move the exchange rate. Capital controls, which the bank justifies by sanctions and blocked foreign-currency accounts, also remain. After sanctions on Moscow Exchange in 2024, official dollar and euro rates are set from combined exchange and over-the-counter data, and the exchange's FX page lists the yuan but not the dollar or euro as traded. On 2026-10-24 the official rate was 80.5381 rubles per dollar, 90.2429 per euro and 12.0557 per yuan.
Key numbers
Official USD/RUB: 80.5381 rubles per dollar (81.1255 on 2026-10-23; ruble 0.7% stronger) (as of 2026-10-24). Source: cbr.ru
Official EUR/RUB and CNY/RUB: 90.2429 per euro; 12.0557 per yuan (as of 2026-10-24). Source: cbr.ru
Ruble move in August 2026 (vs USD): Weaker by 6.8% in the month; August average 13.8% weaker than May average (as of 2026-08-31). Source: cbr.ru
Ruble vs a year earlier (vs USD): June 2026 average 6.6% stronger than June 2025; July 2026 average 3.6% weaker than July 2025 (as of 2026-07-31). Source: cbr.ru
Key rate / overnight RUONIA: 14.00% p.a. since 2026-07-27 / 14.20% (as of 2026-10-22). Source: cbr.ru
Annual CPI inflation: 6.8% as of 2026-10-19; 2026 year-end forecast 7.1-7.6% (as of 2026-10-19). Source: cbr.ru
Current account, January-August 2026: +$35.0 billion (goods exports $312.4 billion, imports $220.8 billion) (as of 2026-08-31). Source: cbr.ru
Current account forecast (2026 / 2027 / 2028): $71 billion / $31 billion / $14 billion (forecast) (as of 2026-10-23). Source: cbr.ru
Oil price for tax purposes (forecast): $72 per barrel in 2026; $55 in 2027; $50 in 2028-2029 (as of 2026-10-23). Source: cbr.ru
Fiscal-rule FX purchases for the Ministry of Finance: RUB 9.91 billion per day, 2026-06-05 to 2026-07-06 (October volume UNKNOWN from primary sources) (as of 2026-07-06). Source: cbr.ru
Federal budget deficit, January-April 2026: RUB 5,877 billion (2.5% of GDP); oil and gas revenue down 38.3% year on year (as of 2026-04-30). Source: minfin.gov.ru
Pass-through of ruble weakness to inflation: At most 0.1 percentage point per 1% weakening of the nominal effective rate (Governor) (as of 2026-09-11). Source: cbr.ru
Timeline
2026-10-24 — Official rates 80.5381 per dollar, 90.2429 per euro, 12.0557 per yuan (81.1255, 91.1364 and 12.1460 on 2026-10-23). (Source: cbr.ru)
2026-10-23 — Bank of Russia holds the key rate at 14.00%; Governor says commodity export earnings bolstered the ruble and the fiscal rule limits oil's effect on the exchange rate; 2026 current account forecast $71 billion. (Source: cbr.ru)
2026-10-21 — OFAC issues General License 131K on contingent contracts for the sale of Lukoil International GmbH. (Source: ofac.treasury.gov)
2026-10-15 — Bank of Russia publishes the August balance-of-payments estimate: current account $3.3 billion in August, $35.0 billion January-August. The EU also lists nine entities, including Russia-based payment agent United Stream LLC. (Source: cbr.ru)
2026-10-09 — OFAC issues General License 135 for diesel fuel of Russian origin. (Source: ofac.treasury.gov)
2026-10-08 — OFAC amends General License 13S (administrative transactions under Directive 4 to Executive Order 14024). (Source: ofac.treasury.gov)
2026-09-30 — Bank of Russia draft Monetary Policy Guidelines 2027-2029: floating ruble, FX dealings for the Ministry of Finance now include yuan, capital controls kept for financial stability. (Source: cbr.ru).pdf)
2026-09-11 — Governor says the ruble 'weakened somewhat in the summer' on weak export volumes and rising import demand, and that pass-through to inflation is at most 0.1 percentage point per 1%. (Source: cbr.ru)
2026-08-31 — Ruble weakened 6.8% against the dollar during August and 13.8% (August average versus May average), per the Bank of Russia's August commentary (data cut-off 2026-09-15). (Source: cbr.ru)
2026-07-23 — EU 21st sanctions package listed on the Council's sanctions timeline. (Source: consilium.europa.eu)
2026-07-01 — Bank of Russia's 2026 H2 FX operations for the Ministry of Finance begin; fiscal-rule purchases were RUB 9.91 billion per day for 2026-06-05 to 2026-07-06. (Source: cbr.ru)
2026-06-30 — June 2026: ruble back in its May 2025-April 2026 range, 8.5% stronger against the dollar than the March average. (Source: cbr.ru)
2026-05-08 — Ministry of Finance: January-April deficit RUB 5,877 billion (2.5% of GDP); oil and gas revenue down 38.3% year on year. (Source: minfin.gov.ru)
2026-04-23 — EU 20th package: transaction ban on 20 Russian banks, RUBx token banned, A7A5 platform designated, EU digital-ruble support ended. (Source: consilium.europa.eu)
2024-12-27 — Bank of Russia begins setting official FX rates from combined exchange and OTC data. (Source: cbr.ru)
2024-07-09 — Bank of Russia says official dollar and euro rates are now set from OTC deals after sanctions on Moscow Exchange. (Source: cbr.ru)
2022-02-28 — EU immobilises about EUR 210 billion of Central Bank of Russia assets (third sanctions package). (Source: consilium.europa.eu)
Key actors and links
Russia (country:russia): Issuer's home economy; the ruble reflects its oil export earnings, import demand, budget and sanctions exposure.
Bank of Russia (actor:bank-of-russia): Issues the ruble; key rate 14.00%; floating regime with no exchange-rate target; sets official rates from exchange and OTC data and executes the Ministry of Finance's fiscal-rule FX deals.
Elvira Nabiullina (actor:elvira-nabiullina): Governor; says commodity export earnings bolstered the ruble and that the fiscal rule limits oil's pass-through to the exchange rate.
Government of Russia (actor:government-russia): Includes the Ministry of Finance, which announces monthly fiscal-rule FX and gold operations and runs a January-April 2026 deficit of RUB 5,877 billion.
Crude oil (commodity:crude-oil): Main export-earnings driver; the Bank of Russia forecasts $72 a barrel for tax purposes in 2026 and $55 in 2027.
Sanctions on Russia (policy:russia-sanctions): Ended dollar and euro trading on Moscow Exchange, shaped OTC pricing, and keeps adding bank, crypto and payment-agent restrictions.
European Union (actor:european-union): 20th package (2026-04-23): 20 more Russian banks, RUBx token and digital ruble; 2026-10-15 listings; about EUR 210 billion of central bank assets immobilised.
U.S. Treasury (actor:us-treasury): OFAC issues Russia-related general licenses (GL 135 diesel, 2026-10-09; GL 131K Lukoil International, 2026-10-21).
US dollar (asset:usd): Main quote currency for official rates (80.5381 on 2026-10-24); dollar trading left Moscow Exchange, so the rate relies on OTC data.
Chinese renminbi (asset:cny): Yuan trades on Moscow Exchange and in Bank of Russia fiscal-rule deals; official rate 12.0557 rubles on 2026-10-24.
Euro (asset:eur): Second official quoted rate (90.2429 on 2026-10-24); euro also set from combined exchange and OTC data.
Central Bank Reserves (theme:central-bank-reserves): Fiscal-rule deals move FX and gold in and out of National Wealth Fund assets; EU holds about EUR 210 billion of Bank of Russia assets.
Gold (commodity:gold): Fiscal-rule operations include gold; Governor said a recent gold decline reflects Ministry of Finance deals with fund assets.
Russian domestic or fiscal stress (theme:russian-domestic-fiscal-stress): Lower oil and gas revenue and a rising deficit raise the stakes for rule-based FX flows and the budget path the bank assumes.
Interest rates (indicator:interest-rates): The 14.00% key rate and rate differential are the bank's stated support for the ruble; 2027 average forecast 12.5-13.5%.
Why it matters now
The ruble swung hard in 2026. The Bank of Russia reports it was 8.5% stronger against the dollar in June than the March average and back in its May 2025-April 2026 range, then weakened 6.8% in August alone and 13.8% from the May average to the August average. On 2026-09-11 Governor Nabiullina said it had 'weakened somewhat in the summer' on weak export volumes and rising import demand, including for petroleum products. By 2026-10-23 she said higher export earnings from rising commodity prices had bolstered it over recent months, and the official rate was 80.5381 per dollar on 2026-10-24, 0.7% stronger than 81.1255 the day before. The ruble sits where oil, the budget, policy rates and sanctions meet. The bank held its key rate at 14.00% on 2026-10-23 and forecasts a 2027 average of 12.5-13.5%; its forecast current account surplus shrinks from $71 billion in 2026 to $31 billion in 2027 as the tax oil price falls from $72 to $55 (forecast). The budget deficit was RUB 5,877 billion (2.5% of GDP) in January-April with oil and gas revenue down 38.3%. OFAC issued diesel (2026-10-09) and Lukoil International (2026-10-21) licenses, and the EU's 20th package added a ban on transactions with 20 more Russian banks and on the RUBx token. UNKNOWN from sources AA could read: the 2026 dollar-rate path before October, the Ministry of Finance's October FX-operation size and reserves after mid-October.
Risks and open questions
Bull case: Inference (AA): Export earnings stay high enough, with oil around the bank's $72 (2026) and $55 (2027) tax-price forecasts, for the current account to stay in surplus ($71 billion forecast for 2026), so the rule-based FX flows and the 14.00% key rate keep the ruble near its autumn level. Import demand eases as refineries are restored, as the Governor expects before year-end, and the bank's own finding that a sustained depreciation is almost impossible when inflation is low holds. A firmer ruble would help disinflation, since August showed exchange-rate-sensitive prices rising 8.0% annualised as the ruble fell. This is a scenario, not a forecast of any rate.
Bear case: Inference (AA): The cushion narrows. The bank's own forecast has the current account surplus falling from $71 billion in 2026 to $31 billion in 2027 and $14 billion in 2028 (forecast), with oil at $55 then $50. The ruble already fell 13.8% against the dollar from May to August, showing how fast it can move when export volumes lag and import demand rises. Budget stress (a January-April deficit of RUB 5,877 billion, oil and gas revenue down 38.3%) can raise the Ministry of Finance's FX purchases or limit its room, and further sanctions on banks, payment agents or crypto rails can add friction. A weaker ruble feeds prices through the 0.1-point-per-1% channel, which could keep the key rate higher for longer. AA does not forecast the exchange rate.
Falsifiers: - The 'ruble is driven by export earnings plus fiscal-rule flows' view fails if the Bank of Russia's own commentary attributes a major 2026-2027 move mainly to something else, such as capital flight or an unexplained shift in FX deposits. - The 'stable' view fails if the ruble weakens by double digits against the dollar over a quarter again, as it did from the May average to the August average (13.8%). - The 'rate-differential support' view fails if the ruble strengthens or holds while the key rate is cut, or if it weakens while the rate stays at 14.00% and inflation falls. - The 'shrinking cushion' view fails if the Bank of Russia's December or February forecast raises the 2027 current account above the October forecast's $31 billion. - The 'sanctions friction' view fails if OFAC or EU measures on Russian banks and payment agents are relaxed, for example by extended licenses or a lifted bank transaction ban.
What to watch
Summary of the Key Rate Discussion and forecast commentary for the 2026-10-23 meeting. (2026-11-05); Source: cbr.ru
Ministry of Finance's monthly announcement of fiscal-rule FX and gold operations (third business day of the month); AA calculates 2026-11-05 allowing for the 2026-11-04 holiday. (about 2026-11-05); Source: cbr.ru
Bank of Russia's next key rate decision (no medium-term forecast at this meeting). (2026-12-18); Source: cbr.ru
Bank of Russia balance-of-payments estimate for September; timing inferred from the 2026-10-15 release of the August estimate. (about mid-November 2026); Source: cbr.ru
Next key rate meeting with a medium-term forecast, including a new current account and oil price path. (2027-02-12); Source: cbr.ru
Government approval of the 2027-2029 budget parameters and any change to fiscal-rule settings; the Governor said on 2026-09-11 she expected approval that month and no confirmation was found. (no confirmed date); Source: cbr.ru
Expiry or renewal of OFAC General Licenses 135 and 131K; the pages AA read state no expiry. (no date found); Source: ofac.treasury.gov
Further EU or US financial sanctions on Russian banks, payment agents or crypto rails after the 21st package. (no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
AA inference
Inference (AA): The ruble is the graph's gauge of Russia's external position, where oil export earnings, rule-based Ministry of Finance FX flows, the bank's 14.00% rate and sanctions plumbing meet. AA reads it as a signal about those inputs, not as a currency view. The links that matter: a weaker ruble raises exchange-rate-sensitive prices (8.0% annualised in August) and narrows the bank's room to cut; a stronger one helps disinflation but cuts the ruble value of oil revenue when the deficit is widening. The main falsifier is a large ruble move that the Bank of Russia explains by something other than trade and fiscal flows.
Sources
The Bank of Russia's official rates for 2026-10-24 were 80.5381 rubles per US dollar, 90.2429 per euro and 12.0557 per yuan; the cbr.ru home page showed 81.1255, 91.1364 and 12.1460 for 2026-10-23. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
The cbr.ru home page showed the key rate at 14.00% p.a. effective 2026-07-27, annual inflation of 6.4% for September 2026, RUONIA at 14.20% as of 2026-10-22, and the next key rate meeting on 2026-12-18. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
On 2026-10-23 the Bank of Russia kept the key rate at 14.00%; annual inflation was 6.8% as of 2026-10-19, seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 8.0% annualised in Q3 2026 (4.8% in Q2), and the 2026 year-end inflation forecast is 7.1-7.6%. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
In the 2026-10-23 statement the Governor said higher export earnings from rising commodity prices had bolstered the ruble over recent months, that 'the influence of global prices on the exchange rate is limited by the fiscal rule', that the Russian oil price for tax purposes is forecast at $72 a barrel in 2026 and $55 in 2027, and that the draft budget envisages a zero structural primary balance in 2029. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
The 2026-10-23 baseline forecast has a current account surplus of $71 billion in 2026 (2025: $39 billion), falling to $31 billion in 2027, $14 billion in 2028 and $10 billion in 2029; goods exports of $499 billion and imports of $349 billion in 2026; and import growth of 2.0-4.0% in 2026. The bank gives no exchange-rate path. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
On 2026-09-11 the Governor said the ruble 'weakened somewhat in the summer' because exports were held back by geopolitical factors and logistics disruptions while import demand rose (partly to secure petroleum products), that exchange-rate pass-through to inflation is at most 0.1 percentage point per 1% weakening of the nominal effective rate, and that 'a sustained depreciation of the national currency when inflation is low is almost impossible'. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
The Bank of Russia's June 2026 inflation commentary says the ruble returned in June to the range of May 2025-April 2026; June-average versus March-average it was 8.5% stronger against the dollar, and versus June 2025 it was 6.6% stronger against the dollar and 0.8% stronger against the yuan. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
The Bank of Russia's August 2026 inflation commentary (data cut-off 2026-09-15) says the ruble weakened 6.8% against the dollar, 8.3% against the euro and 7.4% against the yuan in August; the August average was 13.8% weaker against the dollar than the May average; and prices highly sensitive to the exchange rate rose 8.0% annualised in August versus 5.5% in July. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
The Bank of Russia's balance-of-payments estimate published 2026-10-15 shows a current account surplus of $3.3 billion in August 2026 and $35.0 billion for January-August (goods exports $312.4 billion, imports $220.8 billion); July's surplus was revised to $1.6 billion. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
The draft Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2027-2029 (dated 2026-09-30) say the ruble floats with no target for its level or pace, that the Bank of Russia deals in FX and gold for the Ministry of Finance under the fiscal rule (spread evenly over trading days, now including yuan), that capital controls are used solely for financial stability, and that the ruble stayed strong in 2026 on a high interest-rate differential, import substitution and sanctions. (Source: cbr.ru).pdf, accessed 2026-10-25)
The Ministry of Finance announces its fiscal-rule FX operations on the third business day of each month; for 2026-06-05 to 2026-07-06 the announced purchases were RUB 9.91 billion per day, and the Bank of Russia bought RUB 9.34 billion per day from 2026-07-01 to 2026-07-06. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
On 2024-12-27 the Bank of Russia began setting official FX rates from combined exchange and over-the-counter (OTC) data, with cross rates where trading data is unavailable. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
In a commentary dated 2024-07-09 the Bank of Russia said sanctions on Moscow Exchange had a short-term, minimal effect on the ruble and that official dollar and euro rates were now set from OTC transactions. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
Moscow Exchange's FX market page lists the Chinese yuan, Belarusian ruble, Kazakhstani tenge, Turkish lira and four other currencies as traded, and does not list the US dollar or euro. (Source: moex.com, accessed 2026-10-25)
Russia's federal budget deficit was RUB 5,877 billion (2.5% of GDP) in January-April 2026, with oil and gas revenues of RUB 2,298 billion, down 38.3% year on year (Ministry of Finance preliminary estimate of 2026-05-08). (Source: minfin.gov.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
The EU's 20th sanctions package (2026-04-23) bans transactions with 20 more Russian banks, bans transactions in the RUBx token, designates a Kyrgyz platform trading the A7A5 stablecoin and ends EU support for the digital ruble. (Source: consilium.europa.eu, accessed 2026-10-25)
On 2026-10-15 the EU Council listed three individuals and nine entities for sanctions circumvention, including Russia-registered United Stream LLC, described as a payment agent and intermediary for importing restricted EU goods. (Source: consilium.europa.eu, accessed 2026-10-25)
The Council's sanctions page lists the 21st package on 2026-07-23, economic sanctions extended to 2027-07-31, about EUR 210 billion of Central Bank of Russia assets immobilised in the EU since 2022-02-28, and a December 2025 ban on transferring those assets back to Russia. (Source: consilium.europa.eu, accessed 2026-10-25)
OFAC issued Russia-related General License 135 on 2026-10-09 authorizing transactions in the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of diesel fuel of Russian origin; the page states no expiry. (Source: ofac.treasury.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
OFAC issued General License 131K on 2026-10-21, authorizing certain transactions for negotiating contingent contracts for the sale of Lukoil International GmbH; on 2026-10-08 it amended General License 13S (administrative transactions under Directive 4 to Executive Order 14024). (Source: ofac.treasury.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
Household 12-month price expectations rose to 14.2% in September 2026 from 13.7% in August, above levels recorded in 2024-2025. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)
The Bank of Russia's FX outright operations page, last updated 2026-10-22, showed no amounts for 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22 and says its figures exclude Ministry of Finance purchases and sales. (Source: cbr.ru, accessed 2026-10-25)