Saudi Aramco
Updated
Summary
Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabian Oil Co., Tadawul 2222) is the Kingdom's state-controlled oil and gas company: at the end of 2025 the Government held 81.48%, PIF and its companies sat within a 16.00% 'other' block, and the public held 2.48%. In 2025 it produced 12.9 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, reported maximum sustainable crude capacity of 12.0 million barrels a day, and paid $85.5 billion in dividends. Its economics are shared with the state through royalties (15% of crude value up to $70 per barrel, 45% from $70 to $100, 80% above $100) and income tax and zakat. It also runs the East-West Pipeline, the main route for Saudi crude to the Red Sea that bypasses Hormuz.
Key numbers
Adjusted net income, Q2 2026: $33.4 billion (H1: $67.2 billion) (as of 2026-06-30). Source: aramco.com
Free cash flow, Q2 2026: $12.3 billion after $13.6 billion working capital build (H1: $30.9 billion; H1 excluding working capital $60.3 billion per CFO) (as of 2026-06-30). Source: aramco.com
Total hydrocarbon production, Q2 2026: 9,463 thousand boe/d vs 12,780 in Q2 2025 (about -26%, AA arithmetic) (as of 2026-06-30). Source: aramco.com
Average realized crude price: $108.1/bbl in Q2 2026; $69.2/bbl for FY2025 (as of 2026-06-30). Source: aramco.com
Gearing: 6.2% (4.8% at 2026-03-31; 3.8% at 2025-12-31) (as of 2026-06-30). Source: aramco.com
Net debt / cash: Net debt $31.9 billion; cash $44.6 billion; total borrowings $94.7 billion (as of 2026-06-30). Source: aramco.com
Base dividend: $21.9 billion per quarter (Q2 2026 declared, +3.5% y/y) (as of 2026-08-04). Source: aramco.com
Due from the Government: SAR 76,510 million (about $20.4 billion) vs SAR 29,315 million at 2025-12-31 (as of 2026-06-30). Source: aramco.com
Maximum sustainable capacity: 12.0 million bpd (as of 2025-12-31). Source: aramco.com
East-West Pipeline maximum capacity (company-stated): 7.0 million bpd (as of 2026-05-10). Source: aramco.com
Government shareholding: 81.48% (PIF and companies within 'other' 16.00%; public 2.48%) (as of 2025-12-31). Source: aramco.com
Brent, September 2026 average: $114/bbl (peak $131 on 2026-09-15); EIA 4Q26 forecast $105 (as of 2026-10-06). Source: eia.gov
Timeline
2026-10-12 — Nasser, at the WPC Energy Conference in Riyadh, says diesel is around $200/bbl, inventory refill could take up to two years, and Aramco is studying added export routes and overseas storage. (Source: aramco.com)
2026-10-06 — EIA October STEO: September Brent averaged $114/bbl; pipeline flows partially resumed 2026-09-22 after attacks. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-10-05 — Nasser, in London, calls Hormuz the most serious energy supply shock of his career; cites nearly 3 billion barrels of lost gross supply. (Source: aramco.com)
2026-10-04 — OPEC publishes a press release from seven OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia reaffirming 'commitment to market stability' (content not read). (Source: opec.org)
2026-09-12 — Saudi Foreign Ministry condemns drone attacks on the East-West Pipeline launched from Iraq and says it will not respond for now at the Iraqi prime minister's request. (Source: spa.gov.sa)
2026-09-11 — Ministry of Energy announces the East-West Pipeline was attacked on 2026-09-10 and shut as a precaution. (Source: spa.gov.sa)
2026-08-18 — Aramco and Maaden sign a shareholders' agreement for a mineral-exploration joint venture. (Source: aramco.com)
2026-08-04 — Aramco reports Q2 2026: adjusted net income $33.4 billion, hydrocarbon production 9,463 thousand boe/d, gearing 6.2%. (Source: aramco.com)
2026-05-25 — Aramco and PETRONAS announce transfer of full PRefChem ownership to PETRONAS. (Source: aramco.com)
2026-05-10 — Aramco reports Q1 2026; Nasser says East-West Pipeline reached 7.0 million bpd. (Source: aramco.com)
2026-04-12 — Ministry of Energy says East-West pumping capacity (about 7 million bpd) and Manifa volumes are restored; Khurais restoration continuing. (Source: spa.gov.sa)
2026-04-09 — Ministry of Energy reports attacks on East-West Pipeline, Manifa, Khurais, four refineries and Ju'aymah facilities. (Source: spa.gov.sa)
2026-03-10 — Aramco reports FY2025 results and announces a buyback of up to $3.0 billion; 2026 capital investment guidance $50-55 billion. (Source: aramco.com)
2026-03-09 — Board approves repurchase of up to 350 million shares (up to SAR 11.3 billion) over 18 months. (Source: aramco.com)
2026-02-03 — Aramco announces completion of a $4 billion four-tranche bond priced 2026-01-26. (Source: aramco.com)
Key actors and links
Saudi Arabia (country:saudi-arabia): Home state and fiscal counterpart: Aramco pays royalties and income tax/zakat to it (SAR 51.9bn and SAR 92.1bn expense in Q2 2026) and the Government owns 81.48% of shares, so Aramco cash flow is a channel into state finances. GASTAT shows Q2 2026 oil activities -24.8%.
Government of Saudi Arabia (actor:government-saudi-arabia): Controlling shareholder and tax/royalty authority; sets the regulated domestic prices whose equalization receivable ('Due from the Government', SAR 76.5bn) tied up working capital in Q2.
Saudi monarchy (actor:monarchy-saudi-arabia): Ultimate political authority over the state that owns about 81% of Aramco and directs energy policy; Aramco's output and capex decisions sit inside Ministry of Energy direction.
Saudi East–West pipeline/terminals (place:saudi-east-west-pipeline): Aramco-operated 7 million bpd system (company-stated maximum) that carries crude from the east to the Red Sea; attacked April and September 2026 and partially resumed 2026-09-22 per EIA.
Saudi Red Sea export bypass (theme:saudi-red-sea-export-bypass): Aramco's use of the East-West Pipeline, Red Sea terminals and storage is the bypass route around Hormuz; Aramco calls it key to continued flows but gives no throughput or Yanbu volume.
Strait of Hormuz (place:strait-of-hormuz): Closure or near-closure is the main driver of Aramco's Q2 production fall (9,463 vs 12,780 thousand boe/d); Nasser says flows are about one-tenth of pre-conflict levels.
Hormuz disruption (theme:hormuz-impairment): The disruption regime that cut Saudi crude exports by 2.1 million bpd y/y in June (JODI) while raising prices and Aramco's per-barrel realization.
Houthis (actor:houthis): Claimant of attacks on Aramco sites and Saudi energy infrastructure per AA's October coverage; the Saudi pages AA relies on were not readable here, and Saudi statements on September attacks name drones launched from Iraq, not the Houthis.
Iraq (country:iraq): Saudi Foreign Ministry said drones that hit the East-West Pipeline in September were launched from Iraq and held off responding at the Iraqi prime minister's request.
Crude oil (commodity:crude-oil): Aramco's core product; realized crude price was $108.1/bbl in Q2 2026 against $69.2 for FY2025, with a record premium above Brent.
Brent price (indicator:brent-price): Price reference: EIA says September Brent averaged $114; Aramco's royalty tiers (80% above $100) mean the Government's marginal share of the price rise is high.
Oil inventories (indicator:oil-inventories): Nasser argues global stocks are near the last buffer (commercial inventories under 6 billion barrels, mostly not practically available) and says Aramco is exploring more overseas storage.
Singapore (country:singapore): AA's 2026-10-26 article reports a Singapore EMA/JTC MoU with Aramco and a joint intent to store Saudi crude in Singapore from 2H 2027; the ministry page was not readable in this pass.
Major Asian importers (region:asian-importers): Main customer region for Aramco crude; delivered-supply risk and overseas storage proposals are aimed at them.
2026 Iran war (event:2026-iran-war): Conflict context for the Hormuz disruption and for attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.
Why it matters now
FACT: The 2026 Hormuz disruption has cut Aramco's volumes but lifted prices. Q2 2026 hydrocarbon production was 9,463 thousand boe/d against 12,780 a year earlier, while the realized crude price rose to $108.1 per barrel, so adjusted net income was still $33.4 billion. Free cash flow was $12.3 billion after a $13.6 billion working capital build, which the CFO ties to domestic price equalization receivables he expects to settle in Q3; the Government owed Aramco SAR 76.5 billion at 30 June. Gearing rose to 6.2% and net debt was $31.9 billion. Q2 free cash flow did not cover the $21.9 billion base dividend, which the board still declared. The pipeline was attacked in April and again on 2026-09-10 (shut as a precaution) and flows partially resumed by 2026-09-22 per EIA; Saudi statements say the September drones were launched from Iraq. The Saudi statistics office shows oil activities down 24.8% in Q2. In October CEO Nasser said Aramco is studying added export routes and overseas storage; AA's 2026-10-26 article reports a Singapore storage MoU, but the ministry page behind it could not be opened here, so treat that item as AA's reading. AA's October articles also cite an attack on an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran (Saudi Press Agency page not readable here). FACT on the balance sheet and capital plans: 2026 capital investment guidance of $50-55 billion was maintained on the Q2 call, the interim report records an impairment and held-for-sale remeasurement loss of SAR 928 million in H1 (including losses on SABIC businesses classified as held for sale), and Aramco agreed to hand full PRefChem ownership to PETRONAS. FACT on the state link: the company recorded SAR 92.1 billion of income tax and zakat and SAR 51.9 billion of royalties and other taxes in Q2 alone, and the Government holds about 81% of the shares, so the same cash flow funds both the dividend and the budget. INFERENCE: this is why Aramco's volume loss matters beyond one company, because Saudi GASTAT shows oil activities down 24.8% in Q2 while non-oil activities grew 0.9%. UNKNOWN: East-West and Yanbu throughput (not disclosed by Aramco), Saudi crude output after June, Q3 results, and OPEC+'s latest decision.
Credible disagreement: Aramco says attack impact was not material as of 30 June, while Ministry figures in April put the pipeline, Manifa and Khurais losses at about 700,000, 300,000 and 300,000 barrels per day; both can be true because they cover different dates.
Risks and open questions
Bull case: FACT: H1 2026 adjusted net income was $67.2 billion, realized crude price $108.1 in Q2, ROACE 22.1% and gearing only 6.2% with $31.9 billion net debt, and the company says it kept the $21.9 billion quarterly base dividend and a $2-3 billion buyback going. INFERENCE: if the East-West Pipeline, Red Sea terminals and storage keep working, Aramco sells fewer barrels at much higher prices and premiums, and its ability to move crude outside Hormuz is a scarce asset. FORECAST (EIA): most regional production returns by end-2Q27, which would restore volumes while prices stay above 2025 levels in 2026.
Bear case: FACT: Q2 hydrocarbon production fell to 9,463 thousand boe/d from 12,780, Q2 free cash flow of $12.3 billion did not cover the $21.9 billion base dividend, and H1 free cash flow was $30.9 billion against $43.8 billion of base dividends paid in H1; borrowings were $94.7 billion against cash of $44.6 billion. Facilities in the Kingdom were attacked in April, July and September. INFERENCE: with royalties at 80% above $100 Brent, higher prices send much of the marginal revenue to the state, so a prolonged low-volume regime could push Aramco toward debt-funded dividends. Disagreement: Aramco says the attack impact was not material (interim report); the Ministry's own April figures show multi-hundred-thousand bpd capacity losses.
Falsifiers: - Q3 2026 results (2026-11-03) show hydrocarbon production recovering toward the Q1 level of about 12.6 million boe/d: would weaken the volume-loss thesis. - Q3 free cash flow covers the $21.9 billion base dividend after the domestic price equalization receivable settles as the CFO said: would weaken the dividend-strain thesis. - Aramco discloses East-West or Yanbu export volumes materially above 5 million bpd on a sustained basis: would support the bypass-as-moat reading. - A further interruption of the pipeline or Red Sea terminals lasting more than a week: would falsify the claim that the bypass is a stable hedge. - Brent falls below $70 while Hormuz remains constrained: would break the high-price offset to the volume loss. - Singapore final agreement terms (volume, access rights) not agreed within the 'few months' AA's article quotes: would weaken the overseas-storage reading.
Value accrual gate: Not a crypto asset; Saudi Aramco is a Tadawul-listed oil company (ticker 2222) controlled by the Saudi Government (81.48%). The analogous gate is whether operating cash flow after royalties, taxes and working capital covers capex and the dividend, i.e. free cash flow versus distributions, as reported in each quarterly release.
What to watch
Aramco Q3 2026 results and call (production recovery, free cash flow, equalization receivable settlement, dividend) (2026-11-03); Source: aramco.com
EIA November STEO: Brent path, Saudi bypass flows, Hormuz assumptions (2026-11-10); Source: eia.gov
Final Singapore-Saudi crude storage agreement (volume, term, access rights); METI page not read in this pass (within months of 2026-10-26 per AA article); Source: meti.gov.sg
Disclosure of East-West/Yanbu throughput and any funded expansion toward the 10 million bpd goal AA cites from the Energy Minister (no scheduled date); Source: aramco.com
Next OPEC+ monthly decision and any change to Saudi required production (no scheduled date; last release 2026-10-04); Source: opec.org
GASTAT Q3 2026 GDP estimate (oil activities and non-oil activities) (no scheduled date (Q2 release was early September)); Source: stats.gov.sa).pdf/3ced906f-98b8-d456-8cda-bf94357f58fb?t=1788848972872
Aramco December OSPs to Asia (Aramco does not publish OSPs on its site; secondary reports only) (early November, no scheduled public date); speculative, no scheduled source
Possible new attack on Aramco or Saudi energy facilities and the Ministry of Energy's response (no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
AA inference
Inference (AA): Aramco carries two exposures in one stock of cash: volume (whether barrels can leave the Gulf) and price (which the state taxes steeply at the margin; above $100 Brent the royalty tier takes 80% of the incremental price). A volume loss can therefore outweigh a price gain for shareholders even as the Government's revenue per barrel rises. Mechanism: Hormuz constraint, lower volumes, higher realized prices, larger state take, a state receivable that delays Aramco's cash, a dividend covered only by balance sheet in the short run. Forecast, not fact: if the receivable settles in Q3 and output rises, the dividend gap closes. Falsifiers: Q3 output near 9.5 million boe/d, or a repeat pipeline outage. Overseas storage, if real, is a logistics hedge, not evidence of higher output.
Sources
Aramco's Q2 2026 results release (Dhahran, 2026-08-04) reports adjusted net income of $33.4 billion in Q2 and $67.2 billion in H1, cash flow from operations of $25.4 billion (Q2) and $56.2 billion (H1), and free cash flow of $12.3 billion (Q2) and $30.9 billion (H1); Q2 free cash flow was reduced by a $13.6 billion working capital build. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
Gearing was 6.2% at 2026-06-30, up from 4.8% at 2026-03-31 and 3.8% at 2025-12-31; the board declared a Q2 base dividend of $21.9 billion (SAR 82,073 million), payable in Q3. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
Total hydrocarbon production was 9,463 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 2026, against 12,614 in Q1 2026 and 12,780 in Q2 2025; total liquids were 7,566 thousand barrels per day in Q2 2026 against 10,480 a year earlier. The interim report does not break out crude alone. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
Average realized crude price was $108.1 per barrel in Q2 2026 and $90.1 in H1 2026; ROACE was 22.1% on a 12-month rolling basis. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
In the Q2 call the CFO said a record premium of over $10 per barrel above Brent helped lift realized prices 62% year on year, and that Q2 free cash flow excluding working capital was $25.9 billion, up 42%; the Q2 working capital build mainly reflects receivables from the domestic price equalization mechanism, which he said would be fully settled in Q3. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
On the same call CEO Amin Nasser said Hormuz flows are about one-tenth of pre-conflict levels, that loading capacity at terminals rose 20%, and that Aramco's export network uses Hormuz, the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez and has developed Mediterranean routes; no East-West throughput or Yanbu volume was given. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
The H1 2026 interim report shows 'Due from the Government' of SAR 76,510 million at 2026-06-30 (SAR 29,315 million at 2025-12-31), linked to higher reference equalization prices and higher volumes sold at regulated prices; royalties and other taxes expense was SAR 51,879 million in Q2 and income taxes and zakat SAR 92,057 million. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
The interim report states that the impact of the attacks on affected facilities was not material as of 2026-06-30, and discloses that in July 2026 certain facilities of the company and its affiliates in the Kingdom were targeted in attacks that it will keep assessing. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
At 2026-06-30 Aramco held cash of SAR 167,387 million ($44.6 billion), total borrowings of SAR 355,236 million ($94.7 billion) and net debt of SAR 119,666 million ($31.9 billion). (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
Q1 2026 results (released 2026-05-10): adjusted net income $33.6 billion, free cash flow $18.6 billion after a $15.8 billion working capital build, capex $12.1 billion, and Nasser said the East-West Pipeline reached its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels per day. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
FY2025 (released 2026-03-10): adjusted net income $104.7 billion, free cash flow $85.4 billion, capital investment $52.2 billion, 2026 capital investment guidance $50.0-55.0 billion, total shareholder distributions $85.5 billion, and a buyback of up to $3.0 billion over 18 months. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
The 2025 annual report states total hydrocarbon production of 12.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, maximum sustainable capacity of 12.0 million barrels per day at 2025-12-31, average realized crude price of $69.2 per barrel, and Concession hydrocarbon reserves of 247.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
At 2025-12-31 the Government held 81.48% of Aramco, other holders including PIF and its companies 16.00%, the public 2.48%, and treasury 0.04%. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
Under the Concession amendment effective 2020-01-01, crude and condensate royalty rates are 15% up to $70 per barrel, 45% from $70 to $100, and 80% above $100. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
On 2026-03-09 the board approved repurchasing up to 350 million shares for up to SAR 11.3 billion over 18 months, to be held as treasury shares mainly for employee share plans. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
Aramco priced a $4 billion four-tranche bond on 2026-01-26 (2029 at 4.0%, 2031 at 4.375%, 2036 at 5.0%, 2056 at 6.0%); completion was announced 2026-02-03. Three tranches had negative new issue premiums. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
The Saudi Ministry of Energy said on 2026-04-09 that attacks reduced East-West Pipeline pumping capacity by about 700,000 barrels per day, Manifa by about 300,000 and Khurais by about 300,000, and affected the SATORP, Ras Tanura, SAMREF and Riyadh refineries; one Saudi industrial-security employee was killed and seven injured. (Source: spa.gov.sa, accessed 2026-10-27)
On 2026-04-12 the Ministry said East-West Pipeline pumping capacity of about 7 million barrels per day and Manifa volumes had been restored, while work on Khurais was still ongoing. (Source: spa.gov.sa, accessed 2026-10-27)
The Ministry of Energy said the East-West Pipeline was subjected to multiple attacks on the morning of 2026-09-10 and was shut down as a precautionary measure (SPA dispatch 2026-09-11). (Source: spa.gov.sa, accessed 2026-10-27)
On 2026-09-12 Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry condemned drone attacks on the pipeline 'launched from Iraq', said at the Iraqi prime minister's request the Kingdom would not respond for now, and reserved the right to take necessary measures. (Source: spa.gov.sa, accessed 2026-10-27)
EIA's October 2026 STEO (released 2026-10-06) estimates September Brent averaged $114 per barrel with a 2026-09-15 daily peak of $131, forecasts $105 for 4Q26, $96 for 2026 and $84 for 2027, and says the pipeline's flows were halted by attacks and partially resumed on 2026-09-22. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-27)
EIA's October STEO assumes Middle East flows stay constrained through 4Q26 with crude shut-ins averaging 4.5 million barrels per day in 4Q26 (peak 10.9 million in May 2026, 4.8 million estimated for September). (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-27)
JODI data show Saudi crude production in June 2026 rose 562 thousand barrels per day month on month but was 2.6 million barrels per day below June 2025, and crude exports were 2.1 million barrels per day below June 2025, which JODI attributes to the 'SoH closure'. (Source: jodidata.org, accessed 2026-10-27)
GASTAT's Q2 2026 GDP estimate shows real GDP -4.7% year on year, oil activities -24.8%, non-oil activities +0.9% and government activities +0.9%. (Source: stats.gov.sa).pdf/3ced906f-98b8-d456-8cda-bf94357f58fb?t=1788848972872, accessed 2026-10-27)
In his 2026-10-05 London remarks Nasser said nearly 3 billion barrels of gross supply had been lost, over 1 billion barrels drawn from stocks, remaining commercial inventories were under 6 billion barrels with the vast majority not practically available, and that Aramco is studying additional crude export routes and exploring more overseas storage. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
In his 2026-10-12 remarks at the WPC Energy Conference Nasser said diesel was 'currently around $200 per barrel', that refilling inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years, and that more than 90% of materials used in restoration were sourced in the Kingdom. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
Aramco's investor page lists Q3 2026 results for 2026-11-03 (webcast 11am Riyadh), and Aramco's news page shows no news items dated September or October 2026 (latest: 2026-08-24). (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
Aramco's news page lists a 2026-08-18 shareholders' agreement with Maaden for a mineral-exploration joint venture and a 2026-05-25 transfer of full PRefChem ownership to PETRONAS. (Source: aramco.com, accessed 2026-10-27)
OPEC published a press release dated 2026-10-04 titled 'Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirm commitment to market stability'; the page itself could not be opened, so the decision it records is UNKNOWN here. (Source: opec.org, accessed 2026-10-27)