2026 Iran war
Updated
Summary
The 2026 Iran war is the armed conflict between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. It began on 2026-02-28 with joint strikes, which the US called Operation Epic Fury and the IDF Operation Roaring Lion. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed at the start; his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, said closing the Strait of Hormuz must remain Iran's lever. An April ceasefire and a June deal both broke down, and the US has blockaded Iranian ports since 2026-07-14. In mid-October 2026 the strait is still largely shut, and attacks have spread to Saudi oil and aviation sites.
Key numbers
Strait of Hormuz daily transits: 2025 baseline vs. 11-14 Oct 2026 (per a draft JMIC/UKMTO advisory): About 138/day baseline; single-digit independently tracked; about 30/day in US-coordinated data (as of 2026-10-15). Source: ukmto.org
Oil flows through Hormuz: pre-war vs. March-May average vs. September 2026: About 20 mb/d / 2.7 mb/d / 10.9 mb/d (as of 2026-09-30). Source: iea.org
Gulf crude exports, September 2026: 13.9 mb/d, over 75% of pre-war; Middle East product exports 1.9 mb/d, below half of pre-war (as of 2026-09-30). Source: iea.org
Global observed oil inventories vs. end-February 2026: 509 mb lower (as of 2026-09-30). Source: iea.org
World oil demand change, 2026 (IEA forecast): -2.6 mb/d, to 102.4 mb/d (as of 2026-10-14). Source: iea.org
Brent forecast: 4Q26 / 2026 / 2027 (EIA): $105 / $96 / $84 per barrel (as of 2026-10-06). Source: eia.gov
US on-highway diesel, weekly average: $6.179/gal, +$2.514 year on year (as of 2026-10-12). Source: eia.gov
IEA Collective Action: released / remaining: About 330 mb released; about 100 mb remaining (over 20 mb diesel first) (as of 2026-10-15). Source: iea.org
Qatar LNG export capacity disrupted by Iranian strikes: 17%; 12.8 Mtpa offline for 3-5 years (as of 2026-03-19). Source: qna.org.qa
Gulf crude shut-ins: March estimate / April projected peak (EIA): 7.5 mb/d / 9.1 mb/d (as of 2026-04-07). Source: eia.gov
US first blockade of Iranian ports (13 Apr-18 Jun 2026): More than 140 vessels redirected; 9 disabled (as of 2026-07-13). Source: centcom.mil
Timeline
2026-10-15 — IEA members speed up the remaining ~100 mb of the March release, diesel first. (Source: iea.org)
2026-10-13 — Per a draft JMIC/UKMTO advisory note, container ship GFS Pride sinks after a projectile strike in Hormuz, the last of eight ship strikes on 11-13 October. (Source: ukmto.org)
2026-10-13 — An Aramco administrative building in Dhahran is targeted; Saudi Energy Ministry reports a limited fire, no casualties. (Source: spa.gov.sa)
2026-10-10 — Attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport kills 12 and injures 309, per Saudi aviation authority. (Source: spa.gov.sa)
2026-09-10 — Attacks hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the main Hormuz bypass; it is shut as a precaution. (Source: spa.gov.sa)
2026-09-08 — CENTCOM says it destroyed five IRGC crude carriers after two more missile attacks on a US warship. (Source: centcom.mil)
2026-09-05 — CENTCOM says the IRGC fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer, which evaded them, and that it then hit three Iranian tankers. (Source: centcom.mil)
2026-09-01 — CENTCOM strikes IRGC air defence, radar, mine-laying and maritime sites after attempted attacks on shipping. (Source: centcom.mil)
2026-07-14 — The US naval blockade of Iranian ports resumes. (Source: centcom.mil)
2026-07-07 — US strikes about 80 Iranian targets after Iran attacks three commercial vessels; CENTCOM calls it a ceasefire violation. (Source: centcom.mil)
2026-06-26 — US strikes Iranian missile, drone and radar sites after an Iranian drone hits the cargo ship Ever Lovely. (Source: centcom.mil)
2026-06-14 — UN Secretary-General welcomes a US-Iran deal for a ceasefire, Hormuz reopening and further talks. (Source: news.un.org)
2026-04-08 — Ceasefire after 38 days of US combat operations; the White House says Iran agreed to reopen Hormuz. (Source: whitehouse.gov)
2026-03-11 — IEA members agree a record 400 mb emergency stock release; Hormuz exports below 10% of pre-conflict levels. (Source: iea.org)
2026-03-04 — QatarEnergy declares force majeure on LNG supplies after halting production. (Source: qna.org.qa)
2026-02-28 — US (Epic Fury) and Israel (Roaring Lion) strike Iran; Iran retaliates against Israel, Gulf states and US bases. (Source: media.defense.gov)
Key actors and links
Iran (country:iran): Belligerent; lost its Supreme Leader on day one and uses Hormuz closure as leverage.
United States (country:united-states): Belligerent; ran Operation Epic Fury and has blockaded Iranian ports since 2026-07-14.
Israel (country:israel): Belligerent; launched Operation Roaring Lion with the US on 2026-02-28.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) (actor:irgc): Iran's main maritime force; fired missiles at US warships in September.
Pentagon (actor:pentagon): Department of War and CENTCOM run US strikes and the blockade.
Strait of Hormuz (place:strait-of-hormuz): Main economic front; about 20 mb/d pre-war, threat rated SEVERE in October.
Hormuz shipping status (indicator:hormuz-throughput): Tracks the shock: 10.9 mb/d in September, single-digit independent transits in October.
Iranian oil exports (commodity:iranian-oil-exports): Blockaded since July; the White House says exports are zero (US claim).
Saudi Arabia (country:saudi-arabia): Main bypass exporter; its pipeline, airport and an Aramco building were hit.
Saudi East–West pipeline/terminals (place:saudi-east-west-pipeline): Main Hormuz bypass; attacked and shut as a precaution on 2026-09-10.
Houthis (actor:houthis): Iran-aligned group threatening Saudi airports and Aramco sites.
Iraq (country:iraq): Riyadh says the drones that hit the pipeline were launched from Iraq.
Crude oil (commodity:crude-oil): Gulf exports recovered to 13.9 mb/d in September; IEA calls it fragile.
Refined products (commodity:diesel): Tightest product; IEA members are releasing diesel first.
LNG (commodity:lng): Qatar lost 17% of LNG export capacity; force majeure runs to early December.
Why it matters now
The war is the largest oil supply shock in the IEA's records. About 20 mb/d moved through Hormuz before the war; flows averaged 2.7 mb/d in March-May. Pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers lifted September flows to 10.9 mb/d, but refined products lag: Middle East product exports are below half of pre-war levels, global inventories are 509 mb below end-February, and US diesel was $6.18 a gallon in mid-October, $2.51 above a year earlier. Iranian strikes took 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity offline for three to five years.
Inference (AA): the mechanism now runs through security, not only the strait. Each attack on tankers, pipelines or airports resets insurance, freight and routing, so product supply stays tight even as crude recovers. UKMTO rated the Hormuz threat SEVERE on 2026-10-15 after eight ship strikes on 11-13 October. Attacks on the East-West pipeline put the main bypass at risk. The IEA has used most of its 400 mb release and is now putting diesel first. Whether talks produce a durable deal is UNKNOWN.
Risks and open questions
Bull case: Supply has adapted faster than the strait has reopened. Bypass routes lifted Gulf crude exports to over 75% of pre-war levels by September, demand is forecast to fall 2.6 mb/d this year, and IEA members still hold about 1.1 billion barrels of public stocks, over 200 million of it diesel. The parties have agreed ceasefires twice, with help from Pakistan, Qatar and others; a deal that holds would let shipping and product exports normalise.
Bear case: Each agreement so far broke down within weeks, and Iran's leadership calls Hormuz closure its lever. Attacks now hit the workarounds: the East-West pipeline, Saudi airports, Aramco sites and ships off Oman. Product exports are below half of pre-war levels, inventories are 509 mb below February, and most of the IEA release is spent. Qatar's lost LNG capacity takes years to rebuild.
Falsifiers: - Bear weakens if UKMTO lowers the Hormuz threat below SEVERE and transits head back toward 138 a day. - Bear weakens if a US-Iran deal holds 60 days with no new CENTCOM-reported ship attacks or strikes. - Bear weakens if Middle East product exports exceed half of pre-war levels in the IEA's November report. - Bull weakens if the East-West pipeline is halted again for more than a few days. - Bull weakens if US diesel prices rise further despite the diesel-first release. - Bull weakens if the US joins Saudi strikes on the Houthis or resumes large-scale strikes in Iran.
What to watch
EIA weekly diesel and gasoline prices. (2026-10-20); Source: eia.gov
EIA November STEO: Brent path and Middle East flow assumption. (2026-11-10); Source: eia.gov
QatarEnergy force majeure: extension past early December or resumption. (early December 2026); Source: edison.it
IEA updated diesel assessment and any further stock action. (no scheduled date); Source: iea.org
Next JMIC/UKMTO advisory: Hormuz threat level and transits. (no scheduled date); Source: ukmto.org
CENTCOM releases on new strikes in Iran or attacks on US ships. (no scheduled date); Source: centcom.mil
A US reply to Iran's reported ceasefire proposal, or new mediated talks. (no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
Whether the US joins Saudi operations against the Houthis. (no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
AA inference
Inference (AA): This node is the root cause of most of the graph's current energy, shipping, food and inflation chains. The chain is: Hormuz closure and attacks on Gulf infrastructure cut crude and especially product exports; inventories fall; diesel and freight costs rise; inflation keeps central banks tight; importers face growth and fiscal stress. The war has shifted from a strait closure to a campaign against energy logistics, so 'Hormuz reopens' alone is not enough of a signal. The thesis weakens if UKMTO lowers the threat level, transits return toward 138 a day and Middle East product exports recover above half of pre-war levels.
Sources
The US Department of War's fact sheet on the first 13 days says Operation Epic Fury launched on 2026-02-28 and reports about 6,000 targets struck and 90+ Iranian vessels damaged or destroyed (US government figures). (Source: media.defense.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
The IDF spokesperson said Israel launched Operation Roaring Lion on the morning of 2026-02-28 'together with the United States military', with about 200 aircraft striking over 500 targets, and named senior Iranian officials it said were killed, including IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour. (Source: idf.il, accessed 2026-10-16)
UN News reported that Israel and the United States struck Iran on 2026-02-28 and that Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel and Gulf countries. (Source: news.un.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
At the Security Council, UN Secretary-General Guterres said that, according to Israeli sources, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed, but that he could not confirm it; Iran counterattacked US bases in Gulf countries. (Source: press.un.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
In his first message (dated 2026-03-12), Mojtaba Khamenei refers to the 'martyrdom' of the Leader on the 10th of Ramadan, says he took the post after the Assembly of Experts vote, and says 'the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue to be employed'. (Source: en.khamenei.ir, accessed 2026-10-16)
The White House said on 2026-03-01 that Epic Fury aims to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat, destroy its ballistic missile arsenal, degrade its proxy networks and cripple its navy. (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
UN Security Council resolution 2817 (2026), adopted 13-0 with China and Russia abstaining, condemned Iran's attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan and demanded Iran stop interfering with maritime trade. (Source: press.un.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
QatarEnergy declared force majeure to affected LNG buyers on 2026-03-04, after halting LNG production. (Source: qna.org.qa, accessed 2026-10-16)
Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs said on 2026-03-19 that Iranian attacks disrupted 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, damaging two of 14 LNG trains and one of two GTL plants; repairs would take 12.8 Mtpa of LNG offline for three to five years, with about $20 billion of annual revenue lost. (Source: qna.org.qa, accessed 2026-10-16)
On 2026-03-11 the IEA's 32 members agreed a 400 million barrel emergency stock release, the largest in its history; crude and product exports through Hormuz were then below 10% of pre-conflict levels, against about 20 mb/d in 2025. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
EIA (2026-04-07) estimated Gulf crude shut-ins at 7.5 mb/d in March and projected a 9.1 mb/d peak in April, with Brent averaging $103 in March. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
The White House said on 2026-04-08 that Iran had agreed to a ceasefire and to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and claimed over 13,000 targets struck (US government claim). (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
The Department of War said Epic Fury combat lasted 38 days before the ceasefire; Gen. Caine said 'a ceasefire is a pause, and the joint force remains ready'. (Source: war.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
On 2026-06-14 the UN Secretary-General welcomed a new US-Iran peace deal providing for a ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a framework for negotiations, and thanked Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. (Source: news.un.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
The White House said on 2026-06-19 that the Iran agreement reopens the Strait of Hormuz to free navigation; supporters it quotes describe it as a 60-day memorandum of understanding. (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
An IEA commentary (2026-06-22) said Hormuz flows averaged 2.7 mb/d in March-May against about 20 mb/d pre-war, cumulative Middle East supply losses exceeded 1.3 billion barrels, and Dated Brent hit an all-time high of $144/bbl in early April. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
CENTCOM struck Iranian missile and drone storage and coastal radar sites on 2026-06-26 after an Iranian drone hit the cargo ship Ever Lovely the day before, saying Iran had 'clearly violated the ceasefire'. (Source: centcom.mil, accessed 2026-10-16)
At a Security Council meeting in mid-2026, Bahrain reported 808 attacks since 2026-02-28 (203 ballistic missiles, 605 drones) and Kuwait reported 893 drone and 873 ballistic-missile attacks; Iran's envoy said the US and Israel had 'betrayed diplomacy twice'. (Source: press.un.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
CENTCOM struck about 80 Iranian targets on 2026-07-07 to 'impose heavy costs for Iran violating the ceasefire' after Iran attacked three commercial vessels, and about 90 more on 2026-07-08. (Source: centcom.mil, accessed 2026-10-16)
CENTCOM said the US blockade of Iranian ports would resume on 2026-07-14; the first blockade ran from 2026-04-13 to 2026-06-18, redirecting more than 140 vessels and disabling nine. (Source: centcom.mil, accessed 2026-10-16)
CENTCOM reported its 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran on 2026-07-22, against maritime, missile, drone, coastal surveillance and air defence targets. (Source: centcom.mil, accessed 2026-10-16)
The White House said on 2026-08-28 that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz, that nearly 1,500 commercial vessels had transited under US protection and that Iran had exported no oil since the blockade resumed (White House claims). (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
CENTCOM completed a wave of strikes on IRGC air defence, radar, maritime, mine-laying and communications sites on 2026-09-01 after attempted IRGC attacks on commercial shipping, and said more than 50,000 US service members are in the Middle East. (Source: centcom.mil, accessed 2026-10-16)
CENTCOM says that on 2026-09-05 the IRGC fired ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and a destroyer, which evaded them with no US personnel harmed, and that it then disabled or destroyed three Iranian crude carriers. (Source: centcom.mil, accessed 2026-10-16)
CENTCOM says that on 2026-09-08, after the IRGC targeted a US warship with ballistic missiles twice in two days, it destroyed five more IRGC crude carriers. (Source: centcom.mil, accessed 2026-10-16)
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy said the East-West pipeline was hit by several attacks in the Riyadh and Madinah regions on the morning of 2026-09-10 and was shut as a precaution. (Source: spa.gov.sa, accessed 2026-10-16)
Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said on 2026-09-12 that the pipeline drones were launched from Iraq and that it would not respond for now, to support the Iraqi government's efforts. (Source: spa.gov.sa, accessed 2026-10-16)
EIA's October STEO (2026-10-06) assumes Middle East oil flows stay constrained through 4Q26, forecasts Brent at $105/b in 4Q26, $96/b for 2026 and $84/b for 2027, and reports September US averages of $4.35/gal gasoline and $6.29/gal diesel; next STEO 2026-11-10. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
EIA's weekly survey put US on-highway diesel at $6.179/gal in the week of 2026-10-12, up $2.514 from a year earlier; regular gasoline was $4.331/gal. Next release 2026-10-20. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
Edison, an Italian buyer of Qatari LNG, says QatarEnergy has extended force majeure until the beginning of December 2026. (Source: edison.it, accessed 2026-10-16)
Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority said an attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on 2026-10-10 killed 12 people and injured 309. (Source: spa.gov.sa, accessed 2026-10-16)
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy said an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran was targeted on the evening of 2026-10-13, causing a limited fire and no injuries or deaths. (Source: spa.gov.sa, accessed 2026-10-16)
On 2026-10-12 Secretary of State Rubio and UK Foreign Secretary Miliband reaffirmed their commitment to safeguarding transit in the Strait of Hormuz and holding Iran accountable. (Source: state.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
The IEA's October Oil Market Report says Hormuz oil flows rose 3.7 mb/d to 10.9 mb/d in September, Gulf crude exports rose to 13.9 mb/d (over 75% of pre-war), Middle East product shipments were 1.9 mb/d (below half of pre-war), global observed inventories were 509 mb below end-February, and 2026 world demand is forecast to fall 2.6 mb/d to 102.4 mb/d; it calls the recovery 'fragile' after renewed attacks in the Gulf. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
The IEA said on 2026-10-07 that member governments still hold about 1.1 billion barrels of public emergency stocks, over 200 million barrels of it diesel, with about 325 million barrels released so far. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
The IEA Governing Board said on 2026-10-15 that about 330 million barrels have been released under the March 2026 Collective Action and that members will release the remaining roughly 100 million barrels, including over 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
The JMIC advisory note of 2026-10-15 (published by UKMTO, marked draft) rates the Hormuz threat SEVERE 'due to recent Iranian attacks', lists eight unknown-projectile strikes on ships in the strait on 11-13 October (the container ship GFS Pride sank on 13 October, crew evacuated), and gives a 2025 baseline of about 138 transits a day against single-digit independently tracked transits and about 30 a day in US-coordinated data; vessels are hailed to divert to a northern Iranian-controlled route. (Source: ukmto.org, accessed 2026-10-16)