United States
Updated
Summary
The United States is the issuer of the dollar and of the Treasury debt that anchors global yields, the home of the Federal Reserve, the SEC, the CFTC and OFAC, and the world's largest crude oil producer (13.7 million b/d in 2025) and a fast-growing LNG exporter (18 Bcf/d forecast for 2026). It is also a party to a war with Iran that began on 2026-02-28. In this graph it is the source node for monetary, fiscal, trade, sanctions and crypto-regulation shocks.
Key numbers
Fed funds target range: 3.75% to 4.00% (raised 0.25 point; vote 12-0) (as of 2026-09-16). Source: federalreserve.gov
FOMC median projections (Sept): Year-end 2026: funds rate 4.1%, PCE inflation 3.7%, core PCE 3.4%, unemployment 4.1%, GDP 2.3% (forecast) (as of 2026-09-16). Source: federalreserve.gov
CPI, all items: +3.7% over 12 months; +0.6% on the month; core +2.6% over 12 months; gasoline +34.2% over 12 months (as of 2026-09-30). Source: bls.gov
Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment: +29,000 in September; unemployment 4.2%; average hourly earnings +3.0% over 12 months; July revised to -10,000 (as of 2026-09-30). Source: bls.gov
Real GDP, Q2 2026 (third estimate): 2.2% annual rate; PCE price index +5.0%; core PCE +3.3% (Q2 annualised) (as of 2026-06-30). Source: bea.gov
Federal deficit, FY2026: $2.0 trillion, $218 billion more than FY2025; receipts +3%, outlays +6% (CBO estimate) (as of 2026-09-30). Source: cbo.gov
Treasury par yields, 2-year / 10-year / 30-year: 4.69% / 5.00% / 5.33% (10-year was 5.24% and 30-year 5.61% on 2026-10-01) (as of 2026-10-23). Source: home.treasury.gov
Effective tariff rate (CBO): About 10%, 5 points below its November 2025 estimate; IEEPA collections of $166 billion mostly being refunded in FY2026 (as of 2026-07-31). Source: cbo.gov
Brent crude, September average: $114 a barrel; peak $131 on 2026-09-15; EIA forecast $105 in Q4 2026 (forecast) (as of 2026-09-30). Source: eia.gov
US crude oil production: 13.7 million b/d in 2025; forecast 13.9 in 2026 and 14.3 in 2027 (forecast) (as of 2026-10-06). Source: eia.gov
US LNG gross exports: 15 Bcf/d in 2025; forecast 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027 (forecast) (as of 2026-10-06). Source: eia.gov
US retail diesel and gasoline, September average: Diesel $6.29 a gallon; gasoline $4.35; EIA expects diesel above $6 in October (forecast) (as of 2026-09-30). Source: eia.gov
Timeline
2026-10-23 — Treasury par yields: 10-year 5.00%, 30-year 5.33%, 2-year 4.69%; down from 5.24% and 5.61% on 2026-10-01. (Source: home.treasury.gov)
2026-10-22 — Cheniere signs long-term agreements to supply QatarEnergy with 4 mtpa of LNG through 2054, priced off Henry Hub; deliveries begin in the early 2030s. (Source: lngir.cheniere.com)
2026-10-21 — OCC issues the first GENIUS Act final rule for payment stablecoin issuers it supervises; effective 2027-01-18. (Source: occ.gov)
2026-10-21 — Treasury (OFAC) designates nine persons and identifies nine vessels in Operation Economic Outcast; FinCEN issues its first 31 U.S.C. 5318(k) subpoena, to a Greek bank. (Source: home.treasury.gov)
2026-10-16 — Executive Order 14436 implements the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act but waives its duty increases and specified sanctions until further determination. (Source: whitehouse.gov)
2026-10-08 — CBO estimates the FY2026 federal deficit at $2.0 trillion, $218 billion above FY2025. (Source: cbo.gov)
2026-10-07 — FOMC minutes (page last updated this date): all participants backed the hike; most saw another increase likely appropriate by year-end. (Source: federalreserve.gov)
2026-10-06 — EIA October STEO: Brent averaged $114 in September; Gulf production shut-ins 4.8 million b/d, down from a 10.9 million peak in May. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-09-30 — BEA third estimate: Q2 real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate. (Source: bea.gov)
2026-09-18 — President signs H.R. 5334, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. (Source: whitehouse.gov)
2026-09-16 — FOMC raises the funds target range by 0.25 point to 3.75%-4.00%, 12-0, under Chair Warsh. (Source: federalreserve.gov)
2026-09-15 — Senate rejects cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 (digital commodity market structure), 49-50; 60 votes needed. (Source: senate.gov)
2026-09-09 — Treasury at least doubles the size of liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-20 and 20-30 year sectors, in force through 2026-11-04. (Source: home.treasury.gov)
2026-09-01 — House passes the FY2027 stopgap, H.R. 6500, 370-48. (Source: appropriations.house.gov)
2026-07-24 — Section 301 tariffs of 10% to 12.5% replace the expired Section 122 10% tariff, on goods of more than 80 countries per CBO. (Source: cbo.gov)
2026-05-22 — Kevin Warsh takes the oath as Fed Chair (term to 2030-05-21). (Source: federalreserve.gov)
2026-02-28 — Operation Epic Fury, the US military campaign against Iran, begins. (Source: war.gov)
2026-02-20 — Supreme Court rules IEEPA does not authorise the tariffs; they are terminated and refunds begin in May. (Source: cbo.gov)
Key actors and links
Federal Reserve (actor:federal-reserve): Sets the dollar policy rate; at 3.75%-4.00% after the 2026-09-16 hike, with a second 2026 increase seen as likely by most participants.
Kevin Warsh (actor:kevin-warsh): Fed Chair since 2026-05-22; presided over the September hike and press conference.
U.S. Treasury (actor:us-treasury): Issuer of the debt behind the 5.00% 10-year yield, runs buybacks and the 2026-11-04 refunding, and leads Iran sanctions (Operation Economic Outcast).
Donald Trump (actor:donald-trump): Signs the Graham Act, then waives its Russia duties by executive order; tariff authority shifted from IEEPA to Section 301 after the Supreme Court ruling.
U.S. Senate (actor:us-senate): Rejected cloture on the digital commodity market structure bill 49-50 on 2026-09-15.
SEC (actor:sec): Securities regulator; shares digital commodity oversight with the CFTC under the bill the Senate has stalled.
CFTC (actor:cftc): Would gain spot digital commodity authority under the stalled market structure bill.
U.S. Central Command (actor:us-central-command): Runs the Gulf blockade of Iranian exports and Strait of Hormuz escorts, per the administration (not independently verified).
Iran (country:iran): Adversary in the war that began 2026-02-28; target of Treasury shadow-fleet designations and a US blockade of its exports.
Russia (country:russia): Subject of the Graham Act; the 2026-10-16 order waives its 500% duty and specified sanctions.
China (country:china): Counterpart in tech and sanctions friction; AA reported US actions on DeepSeek and five Chinese entities on 2026-10-21 (primary notice not read by this pass).
Qatar (country:qatar): Signed a 4 mtpa, 2054-term US LNG purchase from Cheniere on 2026-10-22.
Strait of Hormuz (place:strait-of-hormuz): The chokepoint behind the Brent spike; EIA assumes Gulf flows stay constrained through Q4 2026.
LNG (commodity:lng): US LNG exports are forecast at 18 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 15 in 2025.
U.S. 10Y and 30Y yields and velocity (indicator:us-10y-30y-yields): Treasury 10-year and 30-year yields were 5.00% and 5.33% on 2026-10-23.
Why it matters now
Three things changed in autumn 2026. First, policy is tightening into weak jobs: the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on 2026-09-16 under Chair Warsh, CPI is 3.7% over 12 months, but payrolls rose only 29,000 in September. Second, long yields are high: the 10-year par yield was 5.00% and the 30-year 5.33% on 2026-10-23, with a $2.0 trillion FY2026 deficit and Treasury enlarging long-end buybacks. Third, the Gulf war keeps energy tight: Brent averaged $114 in September and diesel $6.29 a gallon, while US producers and LNG exporters gain volume. Trade law was reset after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February, and Washington is using sanctions, waivers and stablecoin rules as live policy levers.
Risks and open questions
Bull case: Growth held while the shock hit. Real GDP grew 2.2% in Q2, unemployment is 4.2%, and CBO puts the effective tariff rate near 10%, below its late-2025 estimate. US crude output (13.9 million b/d forecast for 2026) and LNG exports (18 Bcf/d) are rising, so the US is a net beneficiary of tight global energy supply. EIA expects Brent to fall from $105 in Q4 to $84 average in 2027 as Gulf production returns (forecast), which would ease inflation without further Fed tightening.
Bear case: Inflation is high while hiring has stalled. CPI is 3.7% over 12 months with gasoline up 34.2%, Fed staff see inflation risks skewed up, and payrolls rose only 29,000 in September. The deficit is $2.0 trillion (FY2026), CBO says trade-policy changes add $0.9 trillion to 2027-2036 deficits, and the 10-year yield is 5.00% against a 3.75%-4.00% policy rate. A policy rate rising into weak hiring, with the Gulf still constrained, is the stagflation path AA watches. Tariff law is unsettled: the Section 301 actions replaced IEEPA only in July.
Falsifiers: - The stagflation view fails if October payrolls (due 2026-11-06) rebound well above the 12-month average of 45,000 while CPI (due 2026-11-10) falls below 3.7%. - The soft-landing view fails if Q3 GDP (advance estimate due 2026-10-29) shows real growth below 1% or unemployment rises above 4.5%. - The fiscal-stress view fails if the 10-year Treasury yield falls back below 4.5% without a change in the Fed funds path. - The energy-windfall view fails if EIA revises its 2027 Brent path above $100, or Gulf shut-ins stop falling from the 4.8 million b/d September level. - The "Fed tightens further" view fails if the FOMC holds on 2026-10-28 and the minutes show no participant favouring year-end tightening.
Value accrual gate: Not a crypto asset. For crypto nodes, US regulation (OCC GENIUS rule, stalled market structure bill) sets who may issue and trade, but legal access is not token-holder value; and a higher US yield (5.00% 10-year) raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
What to watch
FOMC decision (no projections); first test of the minutes' signal that another hike is likely by year-end. (2026-10-28); Source: federalreserve.gov
BEA advance estimate of Q3 2026 GDP. (2026-10-29); Source: bea.gov
Treasury quarterly refunding: coupon auction sizes and future buyback sizes. (2026-11-04); Source: home.treasury.gov
BLS October employment report (September payrolls were +29,000). (2026-11-06); Source: bls.gov
BLS October CPI (September was 3.7% over 12 months). (2026-11-10); Source: bls.gov
FOMC meeting with new Summary of Economic Projections. (2026-12-08 to 2026-12-09); Source: federalreserve.gov
Expiry date of the FY2027 stopgap funding law and any shutdown risk; not stated on the page read. (no scheduled date (UNKNOWN)); speculative, no scheduled source
Any revived Senate vote on digital commodity market structure. (no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
Iran talks, strikes or blockade changes that move Brent and US fuel prices. (no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
AA inference
Inference (AA): The United States is the upstream node for most of the graph: its policy rate and Treasury yields set the price of dollar liquidity, its energy and sanctions decisions shape the Gulf and Russia chains, and its regulators decide which stablecoin and crypto rails can operate legally. AA treats the combination of a rising policy rate, 5% long yields and an energy shock as the main cross-asset stress channel, and treats the US as a net energy beneficiary but a fiscal and inflation risk.
Sources
The FOMC raised the federal funds target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on 2026-09-16, 12-0. (Source: federalreserve.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
FOMC September median projections: 2026 PCE inflation 3.7%, core 3.4%, unemployment 4.1%, year-end funds rate 4.1%. (Source: federalreserve.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
FOMC minutes: most participants judged another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end; staff see inflation risks skewed to the upside; the Desk paused reserve management purchases. (Source: federalreserve.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
Kevin Warsh took the oath as Fed Chairman on 2026-05-22; chair term ends 2030-05-21. (Source: federalreserve.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
September 2026 CPI: +3.7% over 12 months, +0.6% on the month, core +2.6% over 12 months; gasoline +34.2% over 12 months. Released 2026-10-14. (Source: bls.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
September 2026 payrolls +29,000, unemployment 4.2%, average hourly earnings +3.0% over 12 months; July revised to -10,000. (Source: bls.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
Q2 2026 real GDP grew 2.2% at an annual rate (third estimate, 2026-09-30); advance Q3 estimate due 2026-10-29. (Source: bea.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
CBO: FY2026 deficit $2.0 trillion, $218 billion above FY2025 (published 2026-10-08). (Source: cbo.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
CBO: the Supreme Court ruled on 2026-02-20 that IEEPA tariffs were unauthorised; Section 122 (10%) expired 2026-07-24 and Section 301 tariffs of 10%-12.5% followed; effective tariff rate about 10%; trade-policy changes add $0.9 trillion to 2027-2036 deficits. (Source: cbo.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
Treasury par yields on 2026-10-23: 2-year 4.69%, 10-year 5.00%, 30-year 5.33%. (Source: home.treasury.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
EIA October 2026 STEO: Brent averaged $114 in September, peaked at $131 on 2026-09-15; US crude production 13.9 million b/d in 2026; LNG exports 18 Bcf/d in 2026; EIA assumes Middle East flows stay constrained through Q4 2026. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
EIA: Henry Hub spot forecast to average $3.48/MMBtu in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027; East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below the five-year average in September. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
Operation Epic Fury, the US military operation against Iran, began on 2026-02-28. (Source: war.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
The Senate rejected cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 on 2026-09-15, 49-50 (3/5 required). (Source: senate.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
Executive Order 14436 (2026-10-16) waives the Graham Act duty increases and specified sanctions, conditional on a presidential certification to Congress. (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
OCC Bulletin 2026-50 (2026-10-21): final GENIUS Act rule for supervised stablecoin issuers, effective 2027-01-18; BSA/AML rules to follow separately. (Source: occ.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
Treasury (2026-10-21): nine blocked persons and nine vessels under E.O. 13902; first FinCEN 5318(k) administrative subpoena. (Source: home.treasury.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
Cheniere (2026-10-22): 4 mtpa to QatarEnergy through 2054, Henry Hub-linked, deliveries from the early 2030s; 1 mtpa depends on a positive FID for the Sabine Pass expansion. (Source: lngir.cheniere.com, accessed 2026-10-25)
Treasury at least doubled liquidity-support buyback sizes in the 10-20 and 20-30 year sectors from 2026-09-09; further sizes to be shared at the 2026-11-04 refunding. (Source: home.treasury.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
The White House claimed on 2026-08-28 that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran has exported no oil since the blockade resumed in July (administration claims, not independently verified). (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)