China
Updated
Summary
China is the graph's main counterpart to the United States in trade, technology and critical minerals. NBS data released on 2026-10-19 show real GDP up 4.6% year on year in January-September 2026 and 4.5% in Q3, after 5.0% in Q1 and 4.3% in Q2. That sits at the bottom of the official 2026 target of 4.5% to 5%, set in March alongside the new 15th Five-Year Plan. Growth is lopsided. By customs figures quoted by NBS, January-September exports rose 16.4% and imports 22.3% in yuan. Over the same months fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% and real-estate investment 20.6%, and September retail sales rose only 1.1%. Producer prices turned positive in March 2026 after 41 months of decline and rose 5.0% in September; consumer inflation was 0.9%. China mined about 270,000 of the world's 390,000 tons of rare earths in 2025 (USGS estimate) and still licenses exports of seven medium and heavy rare earths.
Key numbers
Real GDP growth, y/y: Jan-Sep 2026 / Q3 / Q2 / Q1: 4.6% / 4.5% / 4.3% / 5.0% (as of 2026-09-30). Source: stats.gov.cn
GDP, first three quarters 2026: 107.11 trillion yuan (as of 2026-09-30). Source: stats.gov.cn
Goods exports / imports, Jan-Sep 2026 (yuan, y/y; customs data via NBS): 23.20 trn (+16.4%) / 16.74 trn (+22.3%) (as of 2026-09-30). Source: stats.gov.cn
Fixed-asset / real-estate development investment, Jan-Sep 2026, y/y: -7.2% / -20.6% (as of 2026-09-30). Source: stats.gov.cn
Retail sales (September, y/y) / urban surveyed unemployment: +1.1% / 5.2% (as of 2026-09-30). Source: stats.gov.cn
CPI, September 2026: headline / ex food and energy, y/y: 0.9% / 1.0% (as of 2026-09-30). Source: stats.gov.cn
PPI, September 2026, y/y (Jan-Sep average): +5.0% (+2.3%) (as of 2026-09-30). Source: stats.gov.cn
Current-account / goods-trade surplus, H1 2026 (BoP basis, USD; SAFE): USD 378.0B / USD 526.3B (as of 2026-06-30). Source: safe.gov.cn
Foreign-currency reserves / gold holdings: USD 3,400.25B / 77.47M oz (as of 2026-09-30). Source: safe.gov.cn
Loan prime rate: 1-year / 5-year-plus: 3.0% / 3.5% (as of 2026-09-20). Source: chinamoney.com.cn
Rare-earth mine production 2025: China / world (USGS estimate): 270,000 t / 390,000 t (as of 2025-12-31). Source: pubs.usgs.gov
US Section 301 forced-labor tariff on products of China (from 2026-07-24): 12.5% (as of 2026-07-24). Source: public-inspection.federalregister.gov
Timeline
2026-10-19 — NBS: Q3 GDP grows 4.5% y/y, 4.6% for January-September; real-estate investment down 20.6%. (Source: stats.gov.cn)
2026-10-16 — MOFCOM and MOST propose export curbs on 40 AI, biomedicine and solar technologies, with interim registration. (Source: aqygzj.mofcom.gov.cn)
2026-10-14 — NBS: September CPI 0.9% y/y; PPI 5.0% on crude, coal and metals. (Source: stats.gov.cn)
2026-10-09 — EU-China joint statement keeps a rare-earth licence fast track for the EU. (Source: europa.eu)
2026-09-28 — MOFCOM: Kuala Lumpur arrangement extended from 2026-11-10 to 2027-01-10; $30 billion reciprocal tariff cuts agreed. (Source: gov.cn)
2026-09-25 — White House: Xi state visit yields consensus on better tariff treatment for $30 billion of non-sensitive goods each way. (Source: whitehouse.gov)
2026-07-24 — USTR Section 301 forced-labor tariff of 12.5% on Chinese products takes effect. (Source: public-inspection.federalregister.gov)
2026-07-17 — NBS: Q2 GDP grows 4.3% y/y; H1 4.7%. (Source: stats.gov.cn)
2026-05-17 — Beijing summit: 200 Boeing aircraft, Boards of Trade and Investment. (Source: whitehouse.gov)
2026-03-12 — NPC approves the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan. (Source: gov.cn)
2026-03-05 — Government work report sets a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5% and a CPI target of about 2%. (Source: gov.cn)
2026-02-23 — MOFCOM responds to the US Supreme Court IEEPA tariff ruling and urges removal of unilateral tariffs. (Source: mofcom.gov.cn)
2026-02-20 — EO 14389 ends IEEPA tariffs, including the China fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs. (Source: whitehouse.gov)
2026-01-13 — BIS moves NVIDIA H200-class chip exports to China to case-by-case licence review. (Source: bis.gov)
2025-11-10 — BIS final rule suspends the US 50% affiliates rule until 2026-11-09, absent an extension. (Source: federalregister.gov)
2025-11-07 — MOFCOM/GACC Announcement 70 suspends the October 2025 export controls, including rare-earth Nos. 61 and 62, until 2026-11-10. (Source: mofcom.gov.cn)
2025-11-01 — White House announces the US-China arrangement: China suspends its rare-earth control expansion; US keeps heightened IEEPA reciprocal tariffs suspended to 2026-11-10. (Source: whitehouse.gov)
Key actors and links
United States (country:united-states): Main counterpart: IEEPA tariffs ended 2026-02-20; Section 301 and 232 tariffs remain; Kuala Lumpur arrangement extended to 2027-01-10 per MOFCOM; BIS affiliates-rule stay ends 2026-11-09 absent extension.
People’s Bank of China (actor:peoples-bank-of-china): LPRs at 3.0%/3.5%; cut structural-tool rates 0.25 points in January 2026.
Chinese renminbi (asset:cny): AA reading: PBOC policy, the BoP surplus and $3.4 trillion of reserves bear on the yuan.
Rare earth elements (commodity:rare-earth-elements): China mined about 69% of 2025 world output; licenses seven rare earths.
European Union (actor:european-union): Rare-earth licence fast track in the 2026-10-09 joint statement; EU to facilitate priority dual-use licences for China.
US-China AI (theme:us-china-ai-competition): Chip access, the bilateral AI dialogue (next round late November 2026) and 23 AI technologies in China's draft export catalogue.
Taiwan (country:taiwan): Chip-supply side of US-China competition; see its own node.
Trade fragmentation / tariffs (theme:trade-fragmentation): China's lever is export controls (rare earths, now proposed AI, biotech and solar know-how); the US lever moved from IEEPA to Section 301/232.
Industrial policy (theme:industrial-policy): The IMF urges China to scale back unwarranted industrial policy.
International Monetary Fund (actor:imf): July 2026 WEO Update projected 4.6% growth in 2026 (forecast; October vintage UNKNOWN); urges consumption-led growth.
Crude oil (commodity:crude-oil): NBS names crude as a main driver of the 5.0% PPI rise.
Strait of Hormuz (place:strait-of-hormuz): China and the US jointly called for its reopening in May 2026.
NVIDIA (actor:nvidia): H200 exports to China under case-by-case review since 2026-01-13.
Southeast Asia (region:southeast-asia): Customs officials: H1 2026 trade with ASEAN 4.34 trillion yuan, up 18.2% (yuan).
Artificial Intelligence (concept:artificial-intelligence): MOFCOM's draft catalogue lists 23 AI technologies (large models, agents, computing clusters); MOFCOM says most AI stays freely exportable.
Why it matters now
The US tariff framework against China changed in 2026. After the US Supreme Court ruling of 2026-02-20, Executive Order 14389 ended the IEEPA tariffs, including the China fentanyl duties and the reciprocal tariffs whose heightened rates had been suspended to 2026-11-10. US tariffs on China now rest on other laws: Section 301 (including a 12.5% forced-labor tariff on Chinese goods since 2026-07-24) and Section 232. MOFCOM said on 2026-09-28 that the eighth round of talks extended the Kuala Lumpur arrangement, which suspended some tariff and non-tariff measures, from 2026-11-10 to 2027-01-10. The talks also agreed reciprocal tariff cuts on about $30 billion of goods each way. Two legal dates have not visibly moved. A BIS final rule suspends the US affiliates rule only until 2026-11-09, and MOFCOM Announcement No. 70 suspends China's October 2025 rare-earth controls until 2026-11-10. AA found no US Federal Register notice or new MOFCOM announcement matching the 2027-01-10 extension, so the legal status after those dates is UNKNOWN.
China is also adding export-control tools. On 2026-10-16 MOFCOM and MOST proposed adding 40 technologies (23 AI, 5 biomedicine, 12 solar) to the catalogue of technologies whose export is banned or licensed. Comments close on 2026-11-15, but exporters must register covered transfers now. The EU secured a rare-earth licence fast track in the 2026-10-09 joint statement, in return for EU help on priority dual-use licences for China.
At home, investment and property keep contracting. NBS attributes the PPI rise mainly to crude, coal and nonferrous metals; food prices fell 1.7% and core CPI was 1.0%. AA reads this as imported cost inflation, not demand-led reflation (inference). Customs growth rates are in yuan; SAFE's H1 goods surplus of USD 526.3 billion is on a balance-of-payments basis. Loan prime rates have stayed at 3.0% and 3.5% since May 2025; in January the PBOC cut structural-tool rates by 0.25 points, and any broader cut is UNKNOWN. Forecast, separate from observed GDP: the IMF's July 2026 WEO Update projected 4.6% growth for 2026 and 4.1% for 2027. Its October 2026 China projection is UNKNOWN to AA.
Risks and open questions
Bull case: Growth is close to target and the external engine is strong: January-September GDP grew 4.6% and exports 16.4% in yuan (NBS). The H1 current-account surplus was USD 378 billion (SAFE, BoP basis). The PPI has turned positive. Relations with the US are more institutionalised: the IEEPA tariffs are gone, the Kuala Lumpur arrangement runs to 2027-01-10 per MOFCOM, and a $30 billion reciprocal tariff list and a Board of Trade exist.
Bear case: Domestic demand is weak and investment keeps falling: January-September fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% and property investment 20.6%, and September retail sales rose 1.1%. Q3 growth of 4.5% sits at the bottom of the 4.5%-5% target. Core CPI of 1.0% is far from the 2% goal. AA reads the PPI rebound as imported oil, coal and metal costs (inference). The US now taxes Chinese goods through Section 301 (including 12.5% since 2026-07-24) and Section 232, which are harder to bargain away than IEEPA tariffs. The truce is short-dated: the BIS affiliates-rule stay ends 2026-11-09 with no US extension notice found, and No. 70's legal end date is still 2026-11-10. China's new technology catalogue adds a fresh export-control lever.
Falsifiers: - Bull weakens if Q4 data show growth falling below the 4.5% target floor for the year. - Bull weakens if the BIS affiliates rule is reinstated after 2026-11-09 or China lets Announcements 61/62 return after 2026-11-10. - Bear weakens if fixed-asset and real-estate investment stop contracting and core CPI rises toward 2%. - Bear weakens if the US publishes Federal Register notices matching MOFCOM's 2027-01-10 extension and the $30 billion tariff cuts take effect. - The export-control lever reads weaker than the bear case if the final No. 48 catalogue drops the solar items or confirms registration cannot block transfers.
What to watch
End of the US stay of the BIS 50% affiliates rule, absent an extension notice. (2026-11-09); Source: federalregister.gov
Legal end date of MOFCOM Announcement No. 70's suspension of the October 2025 controls (incl. rare-earth Nos. 61/62), unless replaced; MOFCOM says the wider arrangement runs to 2027-01-10. (2026-11-10); Source: mofcom.gov.cn
End of China's one-year suspension of its 24% extra tariff on US goods (status after the IEEPA ruling and the 2027-01-10 extension is UNKNOWN). (2026-11-10); Source: gss.mof.gov.cn
Expiry of 178 USTR Section 301 China tariff exclusions, unless extended. (2026-11-10); Source: ustr.gov
Comment deadline on the draft technology-export catalogue (Announcement 2026 No. 48); final catalogue date not set. (2026-11-15); Source: aqygzj.mofcom.gov.cn
Next US-China AI dialogue. (late November 2026); Source: gov.cn
Expiry of the extended Kuala Lumpur US-China arrangement (per MOFCOM). (2027-01-10); Source: gov.cn
EU-China ministerial video conference, then the third Trade and Investment Consultations meeting. (January 2027; March 2027); Source: europa.eu
Whether the PBOC cuts policy rates or the reserve-requirement ratio; no official statement of intent verified by AA. (no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
Whether US agencies publish notices matching MOFCOM's 2027-01-10 extension (affiliates rule, exclusions, ship fees). (before 2026-11-09; no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
AA inference
Inference (AA): China runs on two speeds. Exports and imports grow at double digits in yuan, while investment and property contract, retail growth is weak, and price gains come from imported energy and metals rather than household demand. Q3 growth of 4.5% shows the export engine is not enough to lift the whole economy above the target floor. This node moves its neighbours through four channels: export volumes and prices (trade fragmentation, partner industries), export licensing of rare earths and now possibly AI, biotech and solar know-how, commodity import demand (crude, coal, metals) and PBOC/renminbi policy. The US-China truce is now longer but thinner in law: MOFCOM's 2027-01-10 extension is a stated outcome, while the US affiliates-rule stay and China's No. 70 still carry November 2026 end dates. The thesis weakens if domestic investment and core prices recover without the export engine, or if both sides publish legal instruments that turn the truce into lasting tariff cuts.
Sources
NBS (2026-10-19): China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2026 was 1,071,071 billion yuan (about 107.1 trillion), up 4.6% y/y at constant prices; Q3 grew 4.5% y/y and 1.2% q/q, after 5.0% in Q1 and 4.3% in Q2. (Source: stats.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-19)
NBS (2026-10-19): September industrial value added rose 5.5% y/y and retail sales 1.1%; January-September fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) fell 7.2% and real-estate development investment fell 20.6%; the September urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%; January-September CPI averaged +0.9%. (Source: stats.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-19)
NBS (2026-10-19), quoting customs statistics: January-September goods trade was 39.94 trillion yuan (399,399 billion), up 18.8% y/y; exports 23.20 trillion yuan (+16.4%) and imports 16.74 trillion yuan (+22.3%). (Source: stats.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-19)
NBS preliminary accounting (released 2026-07-17): real GDP grew 5.0% y/y in Q1 2026, 4.3% in Q2 and 4.7% in H1; Q2 grew 0.9% q/q seasonally adjusted; H1 nominal GDP was 69.57 trillion yuan. (Source: stats.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
NBS: September 2026 CPI rose 0.9% y/y and 0.2% m/m; CPI excluding food and energy rose 1.0% y/y; food prices fell 1.7% y/y; the January-September average was 0.9%. (Source: stats.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
NBS: September 2026 PPI rose 5.0% y/y and 1.2% m/m; producer purchase prices rose 6.9% y/y; the January-September PPI average was +2.3% y/y. (Source: stats.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
NBS's chief statistician attributed September's PPI rise mainly to higher international crude and nonferrous-metal prices and to coal (coal mining +35.3% y/y, oil and gas extraction +24.5%), and noted CPI gasoline up 16.6% y/y and pork down 10.0%. (Source: stats.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
NBS (2026-04-10): PPI rose 0.5% y/y in March 2026, the first increase after 41 consecutive months of decline, citing international factors (nonferrous metals, oil and gas, petrochemicals) and improved supply-demand in some industries. (Source: stats.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
Official SCIO press-conference transcript (2026-07-14, source: State Council Information Office website), GAC deputy head Wang Jun: by customs statistics, H1 2026 goods trade was 25.47 trillion yuan (+16.9% y/y), exports 14.73 trillion yuan (+13.4%) and imports 10.74 trillion yuan (+22.1%); June trade was 4.78 trillion yuan (+24.2% y/y); trade with the EU rose 10.2%. (Source: gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-17)
SAFE: China's current-account surplus was USD 378.0 billion in H1 2026 (USD 193.7 billion in Q2), with a goods-trade surplus of USD 526.3 billion in H1 on a balance-of-payments basis. (Source: safe.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
SAFE official reserve assets table: foreign-currency reserves were USD 3,400.25 billion at end-September 2026 (USD 3,438.33 billion at end-August); gold holdings rose to 77.47 million fine troy ounces from 76.73 million. (Source: safe.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
The National Interbank Funding Center, authorised by the PBOC, published a 1-year LPR of 3.0% and a 5-year-plus LPR of 3.5% on 2026-09-20. (Source: chinamoney.com.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
The State Council portal's own explainer (source: gov.cn) on the PBOC measures announced at the 2026-01-15 SCIO press conference lists a 0.25-point cut to the rates of all structural monetary-policy tools and, with the financial regulator, a cut in the minimum down payment for commercial-property purchase loans to 30%. It contains no statement about room for further rate or reserve-requirement cuts. (Source: gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-17)
The 2026 Government Work Report (delivered 2026-03-05; full text in the State Council Gazette, 2026 No. 9) sets the main expected targets: growth of 4.5%-5%, surveyed urban unemployment of about 5.5%, over 12 million new urban jobs and CPI inflation of about 2%. (Source: gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-17)
The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress adopted the resolution approving the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development on 2026-03-12 (resolution text on gov.cn, transmitted by Xinhua). (Source: gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-19)
The IMF Executive Board concluded China's 2025 Article IV on 2026-02-13: staff projected growth of 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, the general government deficit widening to 8.7% of GDP in 2026 and debt rising to 75.1% of GDP; it urged a shift to consumption-led growth and fiscal stimulus until deflation subsides. (Source: imf.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
The IMF's July 2026 WEO Update projected China's growth at 4.6% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027 (up 0.2 and 0.1 points from April), citing higher oil prices, uncertainty and structural headwinds. (Source: imf.org, accessed 2026-10-16)
MOFCOM's spokesperson said on 2026-02-23 that the US Supreme Court ruling of 2026-02-20 (US Eastern time) on IEEPA tariffs was being comprehensively assessed, that China opposes all unilateral tariff measures and urged the US to cancel unilateral tariffs on trading partners; the statement does not mention China's own countermeasure tariffs. (Source: mofcom.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-19)
Executive Order 14389, signed 2026-02-20, ended the IEEPA duties imposed under nine orders, including EO 14195 (China synthetic-opioid duties) and EO 14257 (reciprocal tariffs): they 'shall no longer be in effect and, as soon as practicable, shall no longer be collected'. Section 232 and Section 301 duties are not affected. (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-19)
USTR's Section 301 action in the forced-labor investigations (Federal Register document 2026-15181) imposes a 12.5% tariff on products of China, not reduced by the MFN duty and subject to annex exemptions, on goods entered on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on 2026-07-24. (Source: public-inspection.federalregister.gov, accessed 2026-10-19)
Under the arrangement in the White House fact sheet of 2025-11-01, China suspended its 2025-10-09 rare-earth export-control expansion and issued general licences for rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite; the US cut its IEEPA fentanyl tariff by 10 points from 2025-11-10 and kept heightened IEEPA reciprocal tariffs suspended until 2026-11-10. (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
The White House fact sheet of 2026-05-17 on the Beijing summit lists China's approval of an initial purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft, at least USD 17 billion a year of US farm purchases in 2026-2028, a U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, and a joint call to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
The White House fact sheet of 2026-09-25 on Xi Jinping's state visit records consensus on more favourable tariff treatment for USD 30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction, Chinese purchases of at least 10 million tons of US coal a year in 2027-2028, work on US concerns about rare-earth shortages, and a new U.S.-China Super Intelligence Dialogue with a next exchange due by November 2026; it does not mention extending the 2026-11-10 deadlines. (Source: whitehouse.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
MOFCOM's Americas and Oceania department head said (gov.cn, 2026-09-28) that the eighth round of US-China consultations (2026-09-20 to 09-23, New York and Washington) agreed to extend the Kuala Lumpur joint arrangement, which had suspended some tariff and non-tariff measures until 2026-11-10, to 2027-01-10; to cut tariffs reciprocally on about USD 30 billion of each other's goods, about 90% of listed items to MFN rates, after domestic legal procedures; and to hold the next AI dialogue in late November 2026. (Source: gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-19)
BIS revised its licence review policy on 2026-01-13 so that exports of NVIDIA H200, AMD MI325X and similar chips to China are reviewed case by case, subject to conditions including US third-party testing and buyer compliance procedures. (Source: bis.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
MOFCOM/GACC Announcement 2025 No. 70 (2025-11-07) suspended Announcements 55-58 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 (the October 2025 rare-earth and related export controls) until 2026-11-10. (Source: mofcom.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
BIS final rule (stay), published in the Federal Register on 2025-11-12: the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities (the 50% affiliates rule) is suspended effective 2025-11-10, ending 2026-11-09 absent a future extension. (Source: federalregister.gov, accessed 2026-10-17)
The State Council Tariff Commission announced on 2025-11-05 that China would keep suspending its 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year and retain a 10% additional tariff, effective 2025-11-10. (Source: gss.mof.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-16)
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 estimate 2025 rare-earth mine production at 270,000 tons in China out of 390,000 tons worldwide; China's April 2025 controls on seven medium and heavy rare earths remain in effect. (Source: pubs.usgs.gov, accessed 2026-10-16)
The EU-China joint statement of 2026-10-09 (Beijing, 8-9 October) records that China will continue facilitating rare-earth and permanent-magnet export licences to the EU through a fast-track mechanism and that the EU will work with member states on priority dual-use licences for China; a ministerial video conference is planned for January and a third meeting for March 2027. (Source: europa.eu, accessed 2026-10-16)
MOFCOM and MOST Announcement 2026 No. 48 (2026-10-16) proposes adding 40 technologies (23 AI, 5 biomedicine, 12 photovoltaic) to the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export, opens comments from 2026-10-16 to 2026-11-15, and requires exporters to register before exporting covered technology from the announcement date until the revised catalogue takes effect. (Source: aqygzj.mofcom.gov.cn, accessed 2026-10-19)
USTR extended 178 Section 301 China tariff exclusions until 2026-11-10. (Source: ustr.gov, accessed 2026-10-19)