Oil and refined-product prices
Updated
Summary
This indicator tracks the prices of crude oil and the fuels made from it: gasoline (petrol), diesel, jet fuel and heating oil. It covers three layers. Crude benchmarks are Brent for seaborne oil and WTI for the US. Wholesale product prices are set in hubs such as New York Harbor, the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe. Retail pump prices add refining, distribution, retail margins and taxes. The gap between a product price and crude is the crack spread, a rough measure of refining margins. In a supply shock, products can rise much faster than crude because refining capacity, product stocks and export routes become the limit. That happened in 2026: the IEA says wholesale diesel reached about $220 a barrel in Europe and the US, nearly double crude. On 2026-10-19 Brent spot was $118.82, while US retail diesel was $6.276 a gallon and gasoline $4.284.
Key numbers
Brent / WTI spot (EIA daily): $118.82 / $110.01 per barrel (as of 2026-10-19). Source: eia.gov
Brent September 2026 average: EIA spot / IEA Dated Brent: $114 / $116.89 per barrel (as of 2026-10-14). Source: iea.org
Dated Brent vs Brent futures (IEA, mid-October): around $134 vs around $107 per barrel (as of 2026-10-14). Source: iea.org
US retail diesel / regular gasoline (EIA weekly): $6.276 / $4.284 per gallon (+$2.656 / +$1.265 y/y) (as of 2026-10-19). Source: eia.gov
US retail diesel record vs pre-war week: $6.529 (week of 2026-09-21) vs $3.809 (week of 2026-02-23) (as of 2026-10-20). Source: eia.gov
US regular gasoline: 2026 weekly high vs pre-war week: $4.500 (week of 2026-05-11) vs $2.937 (2026-02-23); 2022 peak $5.006 (as of 2026-10-20). Source: eia.gov
Wholesale spot, week ending 2026-10-09: NY Harbor ULSD / NY Harbor gasoline / Gulf Coast jet fuel: $4.911 / $3.177 / $4.405 per gallon (as of 2026-10-09). Source: eia.gov
Wholesale diesel peak (IEA) / European diesel crack: about $220/bbl in Europe and US / from $100 to close to $60 per barrel by early October (as of 2026-10-14). Source: iea.org
EIA forecasts: Brent / retail gasoline / retail diesel, 4Q26 and 2027: $105, $84 / $4.15, $3.56 / $5.81, $4.49 (forecast) (as of 2026-10-06). Source: eia.gov
UK pump prices, September 2026 average: petrol / diesel: 169.5p / 192.5p per litre (motor fuels +29.8% y/y) (as of 2026-10-21). Source: ons.gov.uk
UK fuel duty, petrol and diesel (scheduled): 52.95p to 2026-12-31; 55.95p from 2027-01-01; 57.95p from 2027-03-01 (as of 2026-05-22). Source: gov.uk
Global refinery runs (IEA): October 2026 / 2026 average: 81.3 / 81.7 million b/d (2026 down 2.3 mb/d) (as of 2026-10-14). Source: iea.org
Timeline
2026-10-21 — ONS: UK motor fuels up 29.8% on the year; September diesel averages 192.5p a litre, highest since July 2022. (Source: ons.gov.uk)
2026-10-20 — EIA: US diesel rises 9.7 cents to $6.276 a gallon; gasoline falls to $4.284. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-10-19 — EIA daily close: Brent spot $118.82, WTI $110.01, New York Harbor ULSD $5.17 a gallon. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-10-14 — IEA OMR: Dated Brent near $134 against futures near $107; diesel still nearly double crude. (Source: iea.org)
2026-10-14 — BLS: US gasoline CPI up 34.2% and fuel oil up 74.2% over the year to September. (Source: bls.gov)
2026-10-06 — EIA STEO: Brent averaged $114 in September; forecasts $105 for 4Q26 and $84 for 2027. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-09-21 — US weekly retail diesel sets its all-time high of $6.529 a gallon. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-09-17 — Bank of England: Brent $106 on 14 September; gasoline, diesel and jet fuel up by a similar proportion. (Source: bankofengland.co.uk)
2026-09-07 — US retail diesel reaches $5.967, first above the June 2022 record of $5.810. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-05-22 — UK extends its 5p fuel duty cut to 2026-12-31, citing Iran-war fuel prices. (Source: gov.uk)
2026-05-11 — US regular gasoline hits its 2026 weekly high of $4.500, below the 2022 peak. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-04-14 — BLS: March gasoline CPI up 21.2% in one month, the largest since 1967. (Source: bls.gov)
2026-04-06 — US retail diesel reaches its spring high of $5.643 a gallon. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-03-09 — US retail diesel jumps to $4.859 from $3.897 a week earlier as the war cuts Gulf supply. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-02-23 — Pre-war baseline: US regular gasoline $2.937 and diesel $3.809 a gallon. (Source: eia.gov)
Key actors and links
Crude oil (commodity:crude-oil): Crude is the feedstock and the base of every product price; Brent spot was $118.82 on 2026-10-19.
Refined products (commodity:diesel): Refined products, led by diesel, carried the 2026 stress: US retail diesel hit a record $6.529 a gallon.
Diesel cracks (indicator:diesel-cracks): The diesel-to-crude spread; European cracks fell from $100 to near $60 a barrel by early October (IEA).
Refinery utilization (indicator:refinery-utilization): Global refinery runs fall to 81.3 mb/d in October 2026, limiting product supply (IEA).
Refining capacity (indicator:refining-capacity): Inference (AA): lost Gulf product exports leave refining capacity, not crude, as the binding limit.
Energy inventories (indicator:energy-inventories): Low distillate stocks keep cracks elevated; OECD gasoil stocks were about 5% below pre-conflict in July.
Refined-product stress (indicator:refined-product-stress): Record Atlantic Basin diesel and jet cracks in 3Q26 are the price signal of product stress.
Strait of Hormuz (place:strait-of-hormuz): Closure of the strait cut Gulf crude and product exports, the origin of the 2026 price shock.
2026 Iran war (event:2026-iran-war): The war that began 2026-02-28 set off both 2026 price waves.
Energy-driven inflation pressure (theme:energy-driven-inflation): Pump prices pass into CPI: UK motor fuels +29.8% and US gasoline CPI +34.2% over the year to September.
U.S. headline/core CPI (indicator:us-cpi): Gasoline was over half of the US September CPI monthly increase.
United Kingdom (country:united-kingdom): UK diesel averaged 192.5p a litre in September; fuel duty rises to 55.95p on 2027-01-01.
Sanctions on Russia (policy:russia-sanctions): Inference (AA): restrictions on Russian products also limit diesel supply; detail is on the diesel node.
Freight (market:tanker-freight): The IEA says freight costs squeezed European and Asian refining margins in 2026.
Why it matters now
Since the Iran war began on 2026-02-28, the price shock has come in two waves, and the second is about products, not crude. In the first wave, US diesel jumped from $3.897 to $4.859 a gallon in one week in March, and the US gasoline CPI rose 21.2% in a month, a record. Prices eased after April. In the second wave, from late August, Brent spot rose from about $99 to $124 in two weeks of September. US retail diesel passed its 2022 record on 2026-09-07 and set an all-time high of $6.529 on 2026-09-21. Gasoline rose less: its 2026 high of $4.500 in May was still below the 2022 peak. Inference (AA): from EIA weekly spot prices for the week ending 2026-10-09, New York Harbor ULSD at $4.911 a gallon is about $206 a barrel. That is roughly $79 above Brent, while conventional gasoline was only about $6 above. Diesel, not crude, is the bottleneck.
Two price measures are now far apart. Brent futures were around $107 in mid-October, but Dated Brent, the physical cargo price, was near $134, according to the IEA. Physical buyers pay the scarcity price, and that is what feeds pump prices. Pump prices then feed inflation: UK motor fuels were up 29.8% in a year, and US gasoline CPI 34.2%. EIA forecasts Brent at $105 in 4Q26 and $84 in 2027, and diesel easing to $4.49 a gallon. Those are forecasts, and they assume Gulf supply recovers. Winter matters most for diesel and heating oil: distillate stocks are low, and the IEA says lost gasoil stocks will not be rebuilt quickly.
Risks and open questions
Bull case: Read here as the easing case for prices. Gulf crude is recovering and futures curves slope downward. EIA forecasts Brent falling from $114 in September to $105 in 4Q26 and $84 in 2027, with diesel at $4.49 a gallon and gasoline at $3.56. European diesel cracks have already fallen from $100 to near $60 a barrel. US retail gasoline has fallen for four weeks, to $4.284. Demand is also adjusting: the IEA expects world demand to fall 2.6 mb/d in 2026, a quarter of it diesel. Inference (AA): if refinery runs recover after the October low as the IEA expects, product spreads could narrow faster than crude falls.
Bear case: Physical scarcity is not over. Dated Brent near $134 against futures near $107 shows buyers paying up for prompt cargoes. Wholesale diesel is still nearly double crude. US retail diesel rose again in the week of 2026-10-19, and distillate stocks are below normal heading into winter. Heating-oil households in the US Northeast face prices more than 30% above last winter. EIA's falling path assumes Gulf supply recovers; if it does not, the forecasts move up, as the October STEO already raised 4Q26 Brent by $14. In the UK, the fuel duty cut ends on 2027-01-01, adding 3p a litre in duty. Inference (AA): a second winter spike in diesel would hit freight and food after the headline crude price has peaked.
Falsifiers: - The easing case fails if US retail diesel stays above $6 a gallon through December 2026, against EIA's $5.81 4Q26 forecast. - The easing case fails if the gap between Dated Brent and futures widens again in the November IEA report. - The bear case fails if European and US diesel cracks fall back to pre-war ranges while Gulf product exports remain well below pre-war levels. - The bear case fails if EIA's November STEO cuts its 4Q26 and 2027 Brent and diesel forecasts. - AA's 'diesel not crude' inference fails if gasoline cracks rise to match diesel cracks, which would show a general refining shortage.
Value accrual gate: Not a crypto asset. High prices move money from fuel buyers to sellers. Crude producers gain from high crude, and refiners gain from wide cracks; the IEA says US margins hit new highs while European and Asian margins were squeezed. Retailers lost margin in 2026 as wholesale prices surged (EIA). Governments with fixed per-litre duty gain little from higher prices, apart from VAT, and the UK gave up 5p a litre to cushion drivers. Hauliers, airlines, farmers and households pay.
What to watch
EIA weekly retail gasoline and diesel prices: does diesel stay above $6? (2026-10-27, then weekly); Source: eia.gov
DESNZ weekly UK road fuel prices for the week commencing 2026-10-26, especially diesel near 200p. (around 2026-10-27 (edition for the week commencing 2026-10-26)); Source: gov.uk
EIA November STEO: revised Brent, gasoline and diesel forecasts. (2026-11-10); Source: eia.gov
UK fuel duty rises from 52.95p to 55.95p a litre as the temporary cut ends. (2027-01-01); Source: gov.uk
IEA November Oil Market Report: Dated Brent versus futures and diesel cracks. (mid-November 2026 (date not verified)); speculative, no scheduled source
Winter distillate demand meets low stocks; risk of a second diesel spike in the US Northeast and Europe. (2026-12 to 2027-02); speculative, no scheduled source
AA inference
Inference (AA): AA treats this node as the price layer between physical supply nodes (Hormuz, refinery capacity, inventories) and economic nodes (CPI, central banks, household income). AA watches three spreads, not one price: physical against futures Brent, diesel against crude (the crack), and pump against wholesale (retail margin and tax). In 2026 the diesel crack carried most of the stress, so headline crude understated the consumer shock. The thesis weakens if diesel cracks return to normal while Dated Brent stays near $130. That would mean crude supply, not refining, is the constraint. It also weakens if pump prices stop following wholesale prices, for example if taxes or subsidies absorb the move.
Sources
EIA daily prices (close of 2026-10-19): Brent spot $118.82/b (-0.4% on the day), WTI spot $110.01/b (+1.7%), New York Harbor RBOB gasoline $3.30/gal, heating oil $4.84/gal and ultra-low sulfur diesel $5.17/gal. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA weekly spot prices, week ending 2026-10-09: Brent $127.43/b and WTI $96.88/b; New York Harbor conventional gasoline $3.177/gal; New York Harbor ULSD $4.911/gal; Gulf Coast ULSD $4.640/gal; Gulf Coast jet fuel $4.405/gal. Release 2026-10-15. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA weekly spot prices: Brent averaged $99.09/b in the week ending 2026-09-04, $111.83 to 09-11 and $124.15 to 09-18; New York Harbor ULSD peaked at $5.223/gal in the week ending 2026-09-18. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA weekly retail prices, week of 2026-10-19 (released 2026-10-20): US regular gasoline $4.284/gal (-$0.047 on the week, +$1.265 on the year) and on-highway diesel $6.276/gal (+$0.097, +$2.656). Next release 2026-10-27. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA weekly retail, 2026-10-19: California diesel $8.242/gal and West Coast diesel $7.394/gal; Gulf Coast diesel $5.903/gal and gasoline $3.784/gal. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA weekly US retail diesel: $3.809/gal in the week of 2026-02-23 and $3.897 on 2026-03-02, then $4.859 on 2026-03-09 and a spring high of $5.643 on 2026-04-06. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA weekly US retail diesel passed its June 2022 record ($5.810, week of 2022-06-20) at $5.967 in the week of 2026-09-07 and set the series high of $6.529 in the week of 2026-09-21. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA weekly US regular gasoline: $2.937/gal in the week of 2026-02-23 and $3.015 on 2026-03-02; the 2026 high so far was $4.500 in the week of 2026-05-11, below the June 2022 peak of $5.006. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA weekly US regular gasoline in 2026: $4.071/gal on 2026-08-31, rising to $4.478 on 2026-09-21, then $4.354 on 10-05, $4.331 on 10-12 and $4.284 on 10-19. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA monthly US regular retail gasoline: 290.8 cents a gallon in February 2026, 363.8 in March and 410.3 in April, against 317.1 in April 2025; the all-time monthly high is 492.9 cents in June 2022. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA October 2026 STEO: Brent spot averaged $114/b in September 2026, $23/b more than in August; US retail regular gasoline averaged $4.35/gal and diesel $6.29/gal in September. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA October 2026 STEO (forecast): Brent $105/b in 4Q26, $96/b for 2026 and $84/b for 2027; WTI $97.00/b in 4Q26 and $79.74/b in 2027. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA October 2026 STEO (forecast): US retail gasoline $4.15/gal in 4Q26, $3.91 for 2026 and $3.56 for 2027; diesel $5.81/gal in 4Q26, $5.19 for 2026 and $4.49 for 2027, staying above $4 through 2027; wholesale jet fuel $3.88/gal in 4Q26 and $2.97 in 2027. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA October 2026 STEO: distillate crack spreads rose throughout September and should ease but remain elevated with stocks below the 2021-2025 average; gasoline cracks should stay above seasonal averages into early 2027; retail margins were depressed in 2026 by surging wholesale prices. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
EIA October 2026 STEO: heating oil households (about 3% of the US, mostly in the Northeast) face prices more than 30% above last winter and spending up 21%. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
IEA October 2026 OMR: Brent futures rose 13% from early September to around $107/bbl; Dated Brent rose $26.17 to $116.89/bbl in September and was around $134/bbl at the time of writing, with other North Sea grades up to $160/bbl. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-21)
IEA October 2026 OMR: wholesale diesel topped $200/bbl in Singapore in mid-September and hit records of about $220/bbl in Europe and the US; it has eased but remains nearly double crude prices; European diesel cracks fell from $100/bbl to close to $60/bbl by early October. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-21)
IEA October 2026 OMR: record Atlantic Basin diesel and jet fuel cracks offset heavily negative fuel oil and naphtha cracks in 3Q26; US refining margins reached new highs on discounted feedstocks while freight and crude costs squeezed Europe and Asia. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-21)
IEA October 2026 OMR: global refinery runs fall to a seasonal low of 81.3 mb/d in October and 81.7 mb/d for 2026 (down 2.3 mb/d); OECD gasoil stocks were 565 mb in July, about 5% below pre-conflict levels. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-21)
IEA October 2026 OMR (forecast): world oil demand falls 2.6 mb/d in 2026 to 102.4 mb/d, with diesel 25% of the drop. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-21)
ONS: UK motor fuel prices were 29.8% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier (23.0% in August); petrol averaged 169.5p per litre (highest since August 2022) and diesel 192.5p (highest since July 2022), up 8.2p and 10.7p in the month. (Source: ons.gov.uk, accessed 2026-10-21)
Bank of England, 2026-09-17: Brent reached $106/b on 14 September, about 36% above the period before the July report; gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices rose by a similar proportion; oil futures curves slope downward. (Source: bankofengland.co.uk, accessed 2026-10-21)
BLS: the US gasoline CPI rose 34.2% and fuel oil 74.2% in the 12 months to September 2026; gasoline rose 9.1% in September (seasonally adjusted) and airline fares 22.4% over the year. (Source: bls.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
BLS: the US gasoline CPI rose 21.2% in March 2026, the largest monthly rise since the series began in 1967. (Source: bls.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)
Eurostat: euro area energy prices were 18.9% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier and contributed 1.71 points to 3.8% inflation. (Source: ec.europa.eu, accessed 2026-10-21)
GOV.UK, 2026-05-22: UK fuel duty on petrol and diesel stays at 52.95p per litre to 2026-12-31 after the 5p cut was extended because of elevated Iran-war fuel prices; it rises to 55.95p from 2027-01-01 and 57.95p from 2027-03-01; red diesel was cut further to 6.48p from 2026-06-15. (Source: gov.uk, accessed 2026-10-21)
DESNZ publishes average UK retail pump prices for petrol (ULSP) and diesel (ULSD) weekly; the latest edition, for the week commencing 2026-10-19, was published on 2026-10-20. (Source: gov.uk, accessed 2026-10-21)
FOMC minutes (September 15-16, 2026): participants said geopolitical developments pushed up crude and refined fuel prices; a couple cited higher diesel and input costs straining agriculture; staff projected retail gasoline prices to move lower over the rest of the year. (Source: federalreserve.gov, accessed 2026-10-21)