Energy exports
Updated
Summary
Energy exports are the crude oil, refined products, natural gas and LNG a country or region sells abroad. They show who supplies the world's energy and how fast that supply can be rerouted when a route fails. For the United States the main official readings are the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (weekly crude and product exports), the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly (monthly, with product detail), the EIA Natural Gas Monthly and Short-Term Energy Outlook (LNG and pipeline gas), and the Census/BEA trade release (dollar values). Other exporters publish on their own calendars: Norway's Offshore Directorate monthly, Saudi Arabia's statistics authority (GASTAT) monthly, and importers such as Eurostat show who they buy from. AA uses energy exports as an evaluation item in its energy playbook because the 2026 Gulf war turned them from a trade statistic into a measure of how much lost Gulf supply other exporters are replacing.
Key numbers
US crude plus product exports, April 2026 (record): 13.61 million b/d; May 13.54 (as of 2026-04-30). Source: eia.gov
US crude oil exports, April / May / July 2026: 5.59 / 5.73 / 3.56 million b/d (July about 38% below May, AA arithmetic) (as of 2026-07-31). Source: eia.gov
US total petroleum exports, July 2026: 11.41 million b/d (about 16% below April, AA arithmetic) (as of 2026-07-31). Source: eia.gov
US weekly crude exports, week ending 2026-10-16: 3.44 million b/d (prior week 4.57; year ago 4.20) (as of 2026-10-16). Source: eia.gov
US crude oil exports, August 2026 change: +$2.0 billion from July (level UNKNOWN in release); fuel oil +$1.2 billion (as of 2026-08-31). Source: bea.gov
US LNG exports, 1H 2026: 17.4 Bcf/d, +23% on 1H 2025 (as of 2026-06-30). Source: eia.gov
US LNG exports, July 2026 / pipeline to Mexico: 518.8 Bcf (about 16.7 Bcf/d, AA arithmetic) / 227.6 Bcf (as of 2026-07-31). Source: eia.gov
US LNG gross exports, 2025 / 2026 / 2027 (forecast): 15 / 18 / 19 Bcf/d (as of 2026-10-06). Source: eia.gov
US LNG capacity: operating / under construction / non-FTA authorized: 20.71 / 17.71 / 55.9 Bcf/d (as of 2026-09-30). Source: energy.gov
US share of EU imports, Q2 2026: petroleum oil / LNG: 18.8% / 63.2% (as of 2026-06-30). Source: ec.europa.eu
Cheniere liquefaction capacity: operating / under construction: about 56 / about 5 mtpa; QatarEnergy SPAs up to 4 mtpa from early 2030s (as of 2026-10-22). Source: lngir.cheniere.com
Saudi oil exports, May 2026, value vs May 2025: +19.5%; 75.6% of merchandise exports (as of 2026-05-31). Source: stats.gov.sa
Timeline
2026-10-22 — Cheniere and QatarEnergy announce two LNG SPAs for up to 4 mtpa of US Gulf Coast LNG through 2054, Henry Hub-linked, 1 mtpa conditional on a Sabine Pass expansion FID. (Source: lngir.cheniere.com)
2026-10-20 — Norway's Offshore Directorate reports September oil, NGL and condensate output of 1.9 million b/d. (Source: sodir.no)
2026-10-16 — Week ending: US weekly crude exports 3.44 million b/d, down from 4.57 million the prior week (EIA WPSR). (Source: eia.gov)
2026-10-06 — EIA October STEO: LNG exports forecast 18 Bcf/d in 2026 and 19 in 2027; Census/BEA August trade release shows crude oil exports up $2.0 billion. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-09-30 — EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly shows July petroleum exports 11.41 million b/d, down from the April record; DOE LNG snapshot shows 20.71 Bcf/d operating capacity. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-09-22 — Eurostat: US supplied 18.8% of EU oil imports and 63.2% of EU LNG imports in Q2 2026. (Source: ec.europa.eu)
2026-09-01 — EIA: US LNG exports 17.4 Bcf/d in 1H26, up 23%; Asia up 108%. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-07-15 — EIA: US distillate exports 1.56 million b/d and jet fuel 356,000 b/d in 2Q26, and Brent range $72-$118 in the quarter. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-07-08 — EIA reports April 2026 US petroleum exports at a record 13.6 million b/d. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-07-07 — EIA July outlook: Hormuz traffic rising since the 2026-06-18 US-Iran MOU; trade flows expected near pre-conflict levels by year-end (the October attack wave is covered on the Hormuz node). (Source: eia.gov)
2026-06-26 — Eurostat: US supplied 57.4% of EU LNG imports and Qatar 6.6% in Q1 2026. (Source: ec.europa.eu)
2026-06-22 — IEA: Saudi Yanbu exports above 5 million b/d and UAE exports 4.3 million b/d in early June; US exports record in May. (Source: iea.org)
Key actors and links
United States (country:united-states): Largest source of the data and the swing exporter: record petroleum exports in April 2026, LNG exports 17.4 Bcf/d in 1H26, 20.71 Bcf/d LNG capacity operating.
Strait of Hormuz (place:strait-of-hormuz): The disruption behind the 2026 export records; it normally carries almost 20% of global LNG supply and its impairment is EIA's stated cause of the US export surge.
Qatar (country:qatar): World-scale LNG exporter hit by the war; QatarEnergy is now buying up to 4 mtpa of US LNG for delivery from the early 2030s (Cheniere release, 2026-10-22).
LNG (commodity:lng): The fastest-growing export stream: US 18 Bcf/d forecast for 2026; the US supplied 63.2% of EU LNG imports in Q2 2026.
Crude oil (commodity:crude-oil): US crude exports peaked at 5.73 million b/d in May and were 3.56 million in July; the clearest short-cycle reading.
Refined products (commodity:diesel): Product exports (distillate 1.56 million b/d, jet 356,000 b/d in 2Q26) rose most where Gulf product flows were lost.
Saudi Arabia (country:saudi-arabia): Gulf exporter rerouting via the East-West pipeline; Yanbu exports above 5 million b/d in early June; oil 75.6% of May goods exports.
Saudi East–West pipeline/terminals (place:saudi-east-west-pipeline): The bypass route to the Red Sea; IEA put Yanbu exports above 5 million b/d in early June.
United Arab Emirates (country:united-arab-emirates): Second bypass exporter via Fujairah; exports 4.3 million b/d in early June, almost 85% of pre-war.
Norway (country:norway): Largest EU pipeline gas supplier (51.2% in Q2) and 14.3% of EU oil imports; September output 1.9 million b/d oil, NGL and condensate.
European Union (actor:european-union): Largest destination for US LNG and a top destination for US crude; Eurostat is the destination-side check on US export claims.
LNG infrastructure (indicator:lng-infrastructure): Liquefaction capacity sets the ceiling for LNG exports: Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3, Golden Pass and 17.71 Bcf/d under construction.
Egypt (country:egypt): Largest buyer of US LNG in 1H26 at 1.7 Bcf/d, tied with the Netherlands, per EIA.
Mexico (country:mexico): Takes US pipeline gas exports (227.6 Bcf in July 2026), the other half of US gas exports.
Why it matters now
US petroleum exports (crude plus products) hit a record 13.61 million barrels a day in April 2026, with crude at 5.59 million, and stayed near that in May (13.54 and 5.73 million). EIA tied the surge to disrupted crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz that pushed global buyers toward US barrels. The latest data shows the peak has passed. July petroleum exports were 11.41 million b/d (about 16% below April) and crude exports 3.56 million (about 38% below May); the weekly crude figure for the week ending 2026-10-16 was 3.44 million b/d, below the year-ago 4.20 million. Dollar values still rose in August: the Census/BEA release says crude oil exports were up $2.0 billion and fuel oil up $1.2 billion from July, though it gives no level.
Natural gas is the steadier export story. US LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026, up 23% on a year earlier, with Asia taking 2.3 Bcf/d more. EIA's October outlook has gross LNG exports at 15 Bcf/d in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027 (forecast). Operating US capacity is 20.71 Bcf/d with 17.71 Bcf/d more under construction (DOE, 2026-09-30). In Europe's statistics the United States supplied 63.2% of EU LNG imports in the second quarter and 18.8% of EU oil imports, the largest single oil supplier.
The newest signal is contractual, not volumetric. On 2026-10-22 Cheniere announced two sale and purchase agreements for up to 4 mtpa to QatarEnergy through 2054, priced at Henry Hub plus a fixed fee, with deliveries from the early 2030s and 1 mtpa conditional on a Sabine Pass expansion decision. Nothing in the releases says how far the Hormuz disruption motivated it. Outside the US, only fragments could be verified: Saudi oil exports rose 19.5% in value in May 2026 on a year earlier, and IEA says Saudi Yanbu exports passed 5 million b/d by early June. Norway's gas export volumes for September could not be read (UNKNOWN).
Risks and open questions
Bull case: The export base is widening, not just spiking. Crude and product exports set records in April and May 2026, and the underlying support is structural: US crude output is 13.7 million b/d in 2025 (EIA, 13.9 million forecast for 2026), refiners ran at the highest second-quarter rate since 2019, and product net exports are forecast at 6.15 million b/d for 2026. LNG exports are tied to capacity that is already built or financed: 20.71 Bcf/d operating, 17.71 Bcf/d under construction and 55.9 Bcf/d authorized. EIA expects 19 Bcf/d in 2027 (forecast). Long contracts now reach into the 2050s, and QatarEnergy's SPAs show a competing exporter buying US gas for its portfolio. The US is also the largest single supplier of EU LNG (63.2%) and oil (18.8%) in Q2 statistics, so a Gulf outage that persists keeps pulling demand toward Atlantic Basin supply. Inference (AA): if Hormuz flows stay impaired, US exports stay elevated without any new policy action.
Bear case: The oil-export surge looks like a spike that is fading. Total petroleum exports fell from 13.61 million b/d in April to 11.41 million in July, crude from 5.73 million in May to 3.56 million, and the latest weekly crude figure (3.44 million b/d) is below the year-ago level. EIA's October outlook shows crude net imports rising again in the third quarter (2.63 million b/d, forecast). Domestic crude output is forecast to grow only to 13.9 million b/d in 2026, so higher exports compete with domestic refiners and stock rebuilding; US commercial crude stocks (412.5 million barrels) and the SPR (282.7 million) are both below year-ago levels. On LNG, EIA's own forecast has Henry Hub falling to $3.16 in 2027 as exports rise, and July LNG exports (518.8 Bcf, about 16.7 Bcf/d) ran below June's (521.1 Bcf, about 17.4 Bcf/d). The Qatar contract is conditional in part, deliveries start in the 2030s, and nothing in it changes volumes in 2026 or 2027. A reopening of Hormuz would remove the supply gap that pulled US barrels abroad. Monthly figures are also revised, and weekly export estimates are noisy: one week's reading should not be read as a trend.
Falsifiers: - The 'US crude export surge is fading' view fails if EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly for August (due 2026-10-30) or September shows crude exports back above 5.0 million b/d. - The 'Hormuz is the driver' view fails if US crude and product exports stay near April levels while Hormuz oil flows recover toward pre-war levels, since the surge would then need another explanation. - The 'LNG exports ratchet up' view fails if monthly LNG exports in the Natural Gas Monthly fall below 500 Bcf for several months while new trains are reported operating, indicating feedgas or outage constraints. - The 'structural LNG demand' view weakens if the Sabine Pass expansion FID tied to 1 mtpa of the QatarEnergy volume is delayed or declined (Cheniere release). - The 'Europe leans on US supply' view fails if Eurostat's Q3 2026 release shows the US share of EU LNG imports falling back below 50%.
What to watch
EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly with August 2026 export data; checks whether crude exports recovered from July's 3.56 million b/d. (2026-10-30); Source: eia.gov
Census/BEA U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for September 2026 (crude and fuel oil export values). (2026-11-04); Source: bea.gov
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: weekly crude and product export estimates, released each week. (weekly (see EIA schedule)); Source: eia.gov
EIA November Short-Term Energy Outlook: updated LNG export forecast (now 18 Bcf/d for 2026) and any Hormuz assumption change. (early to mid 2026-11 (exact date not verified)); Source: eia.gov
Cheniere final investment decision on the first phase of the Sabine Pass expansion (Train 7), which settles the conditional 1 mtpa. (no date stated by Cheniere); Source: lngir.cheniere.com
Golden Pass Train 2 completion, adding to US LNG export capacity. (late 2026 (EIA expectation)); Source: eia.gov
Start-up of Venture Global CP2, Port Arthur and Rio Grande LNG, the next 11 Bcf/d of capacity. (2027 (DOE estimated start dates)); Source: energy.gov
Other importers or portfolio players signing US LNG SPAs similar to QatarEnergy's. (no scheduled date); speculative, no scheduled source
AA inference
Inference (AA): AA reads US energy exports as a two-speed indicator. Crude and product exports respond within weeks to price spreads and Gulf disruption, so they spike and fade; LNG exports follow plant start-ups and multi-decade contracts, so they ratchet upward. The graph link is that a falling US crude export figure alongside Gulf flows still below pre-war would mean other buyers are being served elsewhere or demand has been destroyed, which AA cannot tell apart from these series alone. Forecast and speculation are labelled where they appear. AA gives no price view and no buy, sell or hold view.
Sources
EIA reported on 2026-07-08 that US petroleum exports hit a record 13.6 million b/d in April 2026, up 15% from the March record, with crude at 5.6 million b/d (21% above the December 2023 record), propane above 2.0 million b/d for the first time and distillate at 1.6 million b/d; it attributed the records to Hormuz disruptions raising demand for US exports. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly (released 2026-09-30) shows US total crude and product exports of 11,318 / 11,868 / 13,610 / 13,540 / 12,540 / 11,410 thousand b/d for February to July 2026, and crude exports of 4,345 / 4,043 / 5,593 / 5,728 / 4,735 / 3,556 thousand b/d; the next release is scheduled for 2026-10-30. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Table 1 for the week ending 2026-10-16 shows crude oil exports of 3,442 thousand b/d (4,570 the prior week, 4,203 a year earlier, 4,087 four-week average) and commercial crude stocks of 412.5 million barrels. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
EIA said US distillate exports averaged 1.56 million b/d in 2Q26 (30% above the five-year average) and jet fuel exports 356,000 b/d (more than double), and described crude exports as at record levels in the quarter. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
The Census/BEA release of 2026-10-06 reports August 2026 goods and services exports of $315.2 billion, with crude oil exports up $2.0 billion and fuel oil exports up $1.2 billion; the next release is 2026-11-04. (Source: bea.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
EIA says US LNG exports were 17.4 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026, 23% above 1H25, with Asia up 2.3 Bcf/d (108%) and Europe up 0.1 Bcf/d; top destinations were Egypt (1.7), the Netherlands (1.7), Italy (1.4), France (1.2) and the UK (1.1) Bcf/d; Golden Pass Train 1 began exports in April 2026. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US LNG gross exports of 15 Bcf/d in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027, and Henry Hub at $3.53, $3.48 and $3.16 per MMBtu. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
EIA's Natural Gas Monthly (September 2026 edition) shows US LNG exports of 518.8 Bcf in July 2026 and 521.1 Bcf in June, pipeline exports to Mexico of 227.6 Bcf in July and to Canada of 80.8 Bcf. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
The DOE LNG snapshot of 2026-09-30 lists 55.9 Bcf/d of non-FTA export authorizations across 45 long-term authorizations, 20.71 Bcf/d of US export capacity operating and 17.71 Bcf/d under construction with a final investment decision. (Source: energy.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
EIA's October STEO tables show US crude net imports fell to 0.73 million b/d in 2Q26 from 2.39 million in 1Q26 and project 1.82 million b/d for 2026 as a whole; product net exports are 6.15 million b/d for 2026 (forecast for the second half). (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-25)
Cheniere announced on 2026-10-22 two LNG sale and purchase agreements with QatarEnergy, 2 mtpa each from Sabine Pass Liquefaction and Corpus Christi Liquefaction (4 mtpa total), FOB at Henry Hub plus a fixed fee, deliveries from the early 2030s through 2054; 1 mtpa of the Sabine Pass volume depends on a positive final investment decision on the first phase of the Sabine Pass expansion; Cheniere has about 56 mtpa in operation and about 5 mtpa under construction. (Source: lngir.cheniere.com, accessed 2026-10-25)
QatarEnergy, in an item carried by the Qatar News Agency on 2026-10-22, described the purchase as up to 4 mtpa, with deliveries expected from 2031 through 2054, expanding and diversifying its global LNG portfolio; it did not state the split between the two agreements. (Source: qna.org.qa, accessed 2026-10-25)
Eurostat reported on 2026-09-22 that in Q2 2026 the United States supplied 18.8% of EU petroleum oil imports (Norway 14.3%, Kazakhstan 13.4%), 63.2% of LNG imports (Russia 17.3%, Algeria 8.1%) and that Norway supplied 51.2% of pipeline gas imports. (Source: ec.europa.eu, accessed 2026-10-25)
Eurostat reported on 2026-06-26 that in Q1 2026 the United States supplied 57.4% of EU LNG imports, Russia 17.3% and Qatar 6.6%, and 17.8% of petroleum oil imports. (Source: ec.europa.eu, accessed 2026-10-25)
IEA said on 2026-06-22 that Saudi Yanbu exports rose from about 2 million b/d before the war to above 5 million b/d in early June, and that UAE exports reached 4.3 million b/d in early June (almost 85% of pre-war), helped by the Fujairah pipeline; it also cited record US crude and product exports of 13.1 million in May. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-25)
Saudi GASTAT's May 2026 trade release says oil exports rose 19.5% from May 2025 in value and were 75.6% of total merchandise exports (65.7% a year earlier). (Source: stats.gov.sa, accessed 2026-10-25)
IEA's Gas Market Report Q3-2026 says Hormuz normally carries almost 20% of global LNG supply, Qatar and UAE LNG supply was forecast to fall about 45% (54 bcm) in 2026, and non-Gulf LNG output rose about 18% (27 bcm) from March to June. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-25)
Norway's Offshore Directorate reported on 2026-10-20 average September 2026 production of 1.9 million barrels a day of oil, NGL and condensate; the page gave no gas figure. (Source: sodir.no, accessed 2026-10-25)