LNG infrastructure
Updated
Summary
LNG infrastructure is the set of plants that cool natural gas into a liquid for export (liquefaction), the ships that carry it, and the terminals that turn it back into gas (regasification). Capacity is counted in million tonnes a year (MTPA) or billions of cubic feet a day (Bcf/d). GIIGNL's 2026 Annual Report, covering 2025, puts global liquefaction capacity at 524 MTPA (16.5 MTPA of it floating) and regasification capacity at 1,247 MTPA, against imports of 428 MT. Regasification is therefore more than twice liquefaction; the scarce asset is plants that produce LNG. Because a plant takes years to build and is financed only against long-term contracts, the pace of final investment decisions (FIDs) today sets supply four to five years out. The United States is the centre of the current buildout, with 26% of global exports in 2025 and nearly 55% of liquefaction FIDs since 2019, according to the IEA.
Key numbers
Global liquefaction vs regasification capacity, 2025: 524 MTPA (incl. 16.5 FLNG) vs 1,247 MTPA (as of 2025-12-31). Source: giignl.org
Global LNG imports, 2025: 428 MT (+5%); 35% spot (as of 2025-12-31). Source: giignl.org
Post-FID liquefaction additions, 2025-2030 (IEA): >330 bcm/yr; annual additions peak about 90 bcm/yr in 2028 (as of 2026-10-01). Source: iea.org
FIDs in 2025 vs Jan-Oct 2026 (IEA): about 100 bcm/yr (over 85% US) vs about 46 bcm/yr (4 projects) (as of 2026-10-01). Source: iea.org
US LNG exports, 1H 2026: 17.4 Bcf/d (+23%); forecast 17.3 (2H26), 18.7 (1H27) (as of 2026-06-30). Source: eia.gov
US share of global LNG exports, 2025: 26% (21% in 2024); 15.1 Bcf/d (as of 2025-12-31). Source: eia.gov
Cheniere platform capacity: about 56 mtpa after Stage 3; about 5 mtpa under construction; over 40 mtpa in permitting (as of 2026-08-31). Source: lngir.cheniere.com
Sabine Pass expansion: up to about 20 mtpa; Phase 1 over 6 mtpa awaiting FID, FERC and DOE approvals (as of 2026-08-06). Source: lngir.cheniere.com
Plaquemines LNG nameplate: 20 MTPA (2.6 Bcf/d nominal); Phase 1 COD expected Q4 2026, Phase 2 mid-2027 (as of 2026-04-01). Source: energy.gov
CP2 LNG (Venture Global): Phase 1 14.4 MTPA nameplate, COD late 2029; Phase 2 mid-2030; $20.7B financing (as of 2026-03-13). Source: s205.q4cdn.com
Golden Pass LNG (QatarEnergy 70%): 2.0 Bcf/d nominal, 3 trains; Train 1 shipping since 2026-04-22 (as of 2026-04-22). Source: eia.gov
DOE approvals since approval pause ended: >18.6 Bcf/d of export authorizations (as of 2026-03-13). Source: energy.gov
Timeline
2026-10-01 — IEA Global LNG Capacity Tracker: more than 330 bcm/yr under construction for 2025-2030; Qatar's North Field East first LNG delayed to at least the first half of 2027. (Source: iea.org)
2026-09-01 — EIA reports US LNG exports up 23% to 17.4 Bcf/d in 1H 2026 on new capacity; exports to Asia more than doubled. (Day taken from the commodity-lng file index; the page text read showed no day.) (Source: eia.gov)
2026-08-31 — Cheniere announces Corpus Christi Stage 3 substantial completion (2026-08-28); platform about 56 mtpa. (Source: lngir.cheniere.com)
2026-08-06 — Cheniere Q2 2026 results: Midscale Trains 8 and 9 48.3% complete; Sabine Pass Phase 1 awaiting FERC and DOE approvals and FID; Bechtel EPC signed May 2026; FERC authorizes about 5 mtpa uprate in June. (Source: lngir.cheniere.com)
2026-05-15 — Commonwealth LNG (Caturus) takes FID, $9.75 billion financing, 9.5 MTPA, operations targeted 2030. (Source: energy.gov)
2026-04-22 — Golden Pass LNG ships its first cargo, the ninth US export terminal. (Source: eia.gov)
2026-03-13 — Venture Global takes FID on CP2 Phase 2 ($8.6 billion); same day DOE raises Plaquemines authorization by 0.45 Bcf/d to 3.85 Bcf/d. (Source: s205.q4cdn.com)
2026-03-02 — Attack takes Qatar's Ras Laffan, the world's largest liquefaction site, offline; Hormuz LNG flows disrupted from 2026-03-01. (Source: iea.org)
2025-07-28 — Venture Global announces CP2 Phase 1 FID with $15.1 billion of financing. (Source: energy.gov)
2025-06-01 — LNG Canada begins operations in June, day not stated (Canada exported 0.3 Bcf/d in 2025). (Source: eia.gov)
2024-12-26 — Plaquemines LNG ships its first cargo, the eighth US export terminal; Corpus Christi Stage 3 produces first LNG the same month. (Source: eia.gov)
Key actors and links
LNG (commodity:lng): The traded good; this node measures the plants that make and receive it, so capacity sets how fast LNG supply can respond to shocks.
Natural gas (commodity:natural-gas): Feedgas for liquefaction; US plants link Henry Hub gas to world LNG prices.
United States (country:united-states): Hosts the largest buildout: 26% of global LNG exports in 2025, and nearly 55% of liquefaction FIDs since 2019 (IEA).
Qatar (country:qatar): Home of Ras Laffan (offline since 2026-03-02) and North Field East (first LNG delayed to at least 1H 2027); QatarEnergy also owns 70% of Golden Pass in Texas.
Strait of Hormuz (place:strait-of-hormuz): Over 110 bcm of LNG, about 20% of world supply, passed through it in 2025 with no alternative route; the reason non-Gulf capacity is valued.
2026 Iran war (event:2026-iran-war): The attacks on Ras Laffan turned a capacity-surplus outlook into a capacity-scarcity one.
Hormuz disruption (theme:hormuz-impairment): The scenario in which US, Canadian and other non-Gulf liquefaction substitutes for Gulf supply.
Hormuz shipping status (indicator:hormuz-throughput): Throughput through the strait is the demand-side test of how much non-Gulf capacity is needed.
United Arab Emirates (country:united-arab-emirates): Its LNG exports (96% via Hormuz per IEA) are counted with Qatar's in the IEA loss estimate.
Japan (country:japan): A large importer with regasification capacity for its needs; its exposure to Gulf LNG is low, so capacity matters through price and contracts.
China (country:china): Largest LNG importer; its import swings determine how much new capacity the market absorbs.
Europe (region:europe): Used regasification and floating terminals to replace Russian gas; the main destination for US cargoes.
Energy exports (indicator:energy-exports): US LNG terminal capacity is a major driver of US energy export volumes.
Canada (country:canada): LNG Canada began operations in June 2025; Phase 2 took FID in September 2026 (IEA tracker).
Why it matters now
The 2026 Iran war made liquefaction location a security question. The IEA says Ras Laffan, the world's largest liquefaction site, has been offline since an attack on 2026-03-02, and that about 20% of world LNG supply moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 with no alternative route. The IEA tracker now shows Qatar's North Field East (43.5 bcm/yr) slipping to at least the first half of 2027. Plants outside the Gulf have partly filled the gap: the IEA says other producers offset about three-quarters of the Qatar and UAE loss. US exports rose 23% to 17.4 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026 as Plaquemines reached full capacity, Golden Pass shipped its first cargo on 2026-04-22 and Cheniere completed all seven Corpus Christi Stage 3 trains on 2026-08-28.
The next wave is being financed. The IEA counts more than 330 bcm/yr under construction for 2025-2030 and four 2026 FIDs (CP2 Phase 2 in March, Commonwealth LNG in May, Delfin in June, LNG Canada Phase 2 in September), after a 2025 in which over 85% of FIDs were American. The mechanism: a Gulf outage raises spot prices and the value of contracted non-Gulf plants, buyers sign 15- to 25-year contracts, and lenders then finance construction. Two limits matter. First, the new plants arrive from 2027 to 2030, so they do not relieve this winter. Second, US approval is not the constraint: DOE says it has approved more than 18.6 Bcf/d of export authorizations, while pending FERC siting, DOE non-FTA reviews and above all contracts and financing decide what is built. Cheniere's Sabine Pass expansion, for example, has an engineering contract in place but no FID date.
There is also an ownership angle. QatarEnergy already holds 70% of Golden Pass in Texas (EIA), so the Gulf's largest producer is itself a US liquefaction owner, and AA's 2026-10-24 draft reports it has signed to buy up to 4 mtpa from Cheniere's Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi plants (not re-read at source here). Inference (AA): Gulf producers buying or owning US capacity is one way the Hormuz risk is priced into plant ownership as well as into spot prices. The caution is that capacity listed is not capacity delivered: Venture Global's own filings still show Plaquemines in commissioning with commercial operations dated Q4 2026, and the gap between first cargo, full physical output and contractual start is a date risk for anyone counting on a specific winter.
Risks and open questions
Bull case: Scarcity makes contracted capacity valuable. The Gulf outage has proved that supply concentration is a risk buyers will pay to reduce, so non-Gulf plants (US, Canada) with long-term contracts and financed construction win share, and Cheniere, Venture Global and Golden Pass each have trains in or near service. Inference (AA): a delayed North Field East means the 2027-2028 buildout has to absorb demand that Gulf expansion would have met.
Bear case: A wave of capacity is coming (IEA: annual additions rise to about 90 bcm/yr in 2028) and could oversupply the market if Gulf plants return and Chinese demand stays weak (China's imports fell in 2025 per EIA). Cost, construction and contract disputes are real: Golden Pass lost its lead contractor to bankruptcy in 2024, some Calcasieu Pass customers dispute its commercial start date, and many pending projects have no FID. Inference (AA): a build-out financed on a crisis price can leave plants with contracts but few spot buyers if prices normalise.
Falsifiers: - The Gulf thesis weakens if QatarEnergy restarts Ras Laffan fully and North Field East meets its revised first-LNG date. - The scarcity thesis weakens if spot prices fall below the cost of new US LNG delivered to Asia and FIDs stop. - The pace thesis fails if Plaquemines, Golden Pass Trains 2-3 or Midscale 8-9 slip beyond their stated dates by more than a year. - The regulatory-bottleneck reading fails if FERC or DOE approvals, not financing, turn out to be what holds up Sabine Pass Phase 1.
Value accrual gate: Not a crypto asset. Plant owners with contracted, financed capacity (Cheniere, Venture Global and their offtakers) gain when scarcity lifts the value of operating liquefaction; developers that cannot reach FID, buyers with uncontracted exposure to spot LNG, and any importer that depends on late or delayed Gulf projects lose. A new plant adds value only if its capacity is contracted and financed.
What to watch
Cheniere FID on Sabine Pass expansion Phase 1 (over 6 mtpa); needs FERC siting and DOE non-FTA approval (no scheduled date); Source: lngir.cheniere.com
Plaquemines Phase 1 commercial operations date (Q4 2026 per Venture Global's DOE report); Source: energy.gov
Golden Pass Train 2 start-up (second half of 2026 per EIA); Source: eia.gov
Cheniere Q3 2026 results (production, Midscale 8-9 progress) (early November 2026 (date not confirmed)); speculative, no scheduled source
FERC and DOE decisions on pending Plaquemines uprate to 35 MTPA peak (CP26-53) and Plaquemines Expansion (no scheduled date); Source: energy.gov
Revised first-LNG date for Qatar's North Field East and any Ras Laffan restart (no scheduled date; IEA tracker says at least 1H 2027); Source: iea.org
Further FIDs among pending US projects (Lake Charles, Rio Grande Train 6, CCL Stage IV, Argent, Magnolia) (no scheduled date); Source: energy.gov
AA inference
Inference (AA): AA reads LNG infrastructure as the physical constraint behind LNG prices and energy-security politics. Gulf capacity is concentrated behind Hormuz, so the nodes that decide how quickly the world can re-route supply are the pace of non-Gulf FIDs, the date the next trains actually start, and whether Qatar's own expansion slips. AA expects deals such as QatarEnergy's purchase of US LNG from Cheniere to be read as diversification toward US capacity, but the terms of the 2026-10-22 agreements were not verified at source here. The reading weakens if FIDs stall while spot prices stay high, if Gulf plants restart fully and the 2027-2030 wave then oversupplies the market, or if buyers decline to sign long contracts.
Sources
GIIGNL's 2026 Annual Report (2025 data) gives global LNG liquefaction capacity of 524 MTPA, including 16.5 MTPA of floating LNG, and regasification capacity of 1,247 MTPA; imports were 428 MT, up 5%, with 35% traded on a spot basis. (Source: giignl.org, accessed 2026-10-24)
The IEA Global LNG Capacity Tracker (as of 2026-10-01) counts more than 330 bcm/yr of post-FID liquefaction additions for 2025-2030, calls it the largest wave of capacity additions to date, and puts FIDs from 2019 to October 2026 above 430 bcm/yr; FIDs in 2025 were close to 100 bcm/yr with over 85% in the US. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-24)
The IEA tracker lists about 46 bcm/yr of FIDs in January-October 2026 across four projects: CP2 Phase 2 (March), Commonwealth LNG (May), Delfin LNG (June) and LNG Canada Phase 2 (September). It says annual additions rise from about 30 bcm/yr in 2025 to about 90 bcm/yr in 2028, then decline. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-24)
The IEA tracker says Qatar's North Field East (43.5 bcm/yr) was disrupted after the March 2026 attacks on Ras Laffan and its first LNG is now delayed to at least the first half of 2027, from end-2026; it says the US accounts for nearly 55% of liquefaction FIDs since 2019, Qatar about 15%. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-24)
The IEA says Ras Laffan, the world's largest liquefaction facility, has been offline since an attack on 2026-03-02; about 20% of world LNG supply, over 110 bcm, transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 with no alternative route; other producers have offset about three-quarters of the Qatar and UAE loss. (Source: iea.org, accessed 2026-10-24)
EIA (Today in Energy, 2026): US LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d in January-June 2026, up 23%; Plaquemines LNG is at full capacity and Corpus Christi Stage 3 was exporting from six of seven trains; exports to Asia rose 2.3 Bcf/d (108%) and to Europe 0.1 Bcf/d (1%); EIA's STEO forecasts 17.3 Bcf/d in the second half of 2026 and 18.7 Bcf/d in the first half of 2027. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)
EIA: US LNG exports rose 26% to 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 and were 26% of global LNG exports (21% in 2024); global LNG trade reached a record 56.3 Bcf/d, and LNG Canada began operations in June 2025. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)
EIA: Golden Pass LNG (QatarEnergy 70%, ExxonMobil 30%) shipped its first cargo on 2026-04-22 as the ninth US LNG export terminal; it has three trains of 0.7 Bcf/d nominal each (2.0 Bcf/d nominal, 2.4 Bcf/d peak in total); Train 2 is targeted for the second half of 2026 and Train 3 for the first half of 2027; its lead construction contractor filed for Chapter 11 in 2024. (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)
EIA: Plaquemines LNG shipped its first cargo on 2024-12-26 as the eighth US export terminal; Phase 1 is 1.3 Bcf/d nominal (1.6 peak) and both phases 2.6 Bcf/d nominal (3.2 peak). (Source: eia.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)
A Venture Global filing to the US Department of Energy (April 2026 progress report) gives Plaquemines nameplate capacity of 20 MTPA, Phase 1 commercial operations expected in Q4 2026 and Phase 2 in mid-2027; production began December 2024; an application to raise peak liquefaction from 27.2 to 35.0 MTPA with no new facilities is pending at FERC (Docket CP26-53). (Source: energy.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)
Venture Global's 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30 lists Calcasieu Pass as operating, Plaquemines as in construction and commissioning (Phase 1 commercial operations expected 2026, Phase 2 in 2027), CP2 in construction (Phase 1 in 2029, Phase 2 in 2030), and the Plaquemines Expansion, CP2 Expansion and CP3 projects in development; some customers dispute the Calcasieu Pass commercial operations date. (Source: sec.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)
DOE increased Plaquemines LNG's non-FTA export authorization by 0.45 Bcf/d on 2026-03-13, to 3.85 Bcf/d in total, and said it has approved more than 18.6 Bcf/d of LNG export authorizations since the previous administration's approval pause ended. (Source: energy.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)
Venture Global announced FID and financial close for CP2 Phase 2 on 2026-03-13: $8.6 billion of project financing, bringing CP2's total financing to $20.7 billion; Phase 2 peak capacity 29 MTPA; contracted capacity across its three Louisiana projects is over 49 MTPA. (Source: s205.q4cdn.com, accessed 2026-10-24)
A Venture Global filing to DOE (April 2026) says CP2 Phase 1 FID was announced 2025-07-28 with $15.1 billion of financing, Phase 1 nameplate is 14.4 MTPA, Phase 1 commercial operations are targeted for late 2029 and Phase 2 for mid-2030. (Source: energy.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)
Cheniere's Q2 2026 results (2026-08-06) report about 55 mtpa in operation across Sabine Pass (over 30 mtpa) and Corpus Christi (over 24 mtpa), over 6 mtpa under construction and over 40 mtpa in regulatory permitting; CCL Midscale Trains 8 and 9 (about 5 mtpa) were 48.3% complete with substantial completion expected in the second half of 2028. (Source: lngir.cheniere.com, accessed 2026-10-24)
Cheniere's Q2 2026 results say the Sabine Pass expansion is planned at up to about 20 mtpa in phases; Phase 1 (over 6 mtpa, Train 7) has a lump-sum Bechtel EPC contract signed May 2026 under a limited notice to proceed; the FERC siting application and DOE non-FTA application remain pending; a positive FID depends on regulatory approvals and acceptable commercial and financing arrangements and no FID date is given. (Source: lngir.cheniere.com, accessed 2026-10-24)
Cheniere announced on 2026-08-31 that Corpus Christi Stage 3 reached substantial completion on 2026-08-28 (seventh and last train turned over by Bechtel), lifting its platform to about 56 mtpa, with about 5 mtpa more under construction; first LNG from Stage 3 came in December 2024. (Source: lngir.cheniere.com, accessed 2026-10-24)
Commonwealth LNG (Caturus) announced FID on 2026-05-15 with $9.75 billion of project financing for 9.5 MTPA of permitted capacity, with commercial operations targeted for 2030 (DOE semi-annual report, October 2026). (Source: energy.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)
Sempra Infrastructure's Port Arthur LNG page describes roughly 26 Mtpa across Phases 1 and 2: Phase 1 (FID March 2023) with Train 1 at or near end-2027 and Train 2 in 2028, and Phase 2 under construction with Trains 3 and 4 in 2030 and 2031; the page gives Phase 2 FID as September 2026, which the AA note flags as unreconciled with the IEA tracker's 2026 FID list. (Source: semprainfrastructure.com, accessed 2026-10-24)
DOE's list of LNG export applications (current as of 2026-06-17) shows pending reviews including Plaquemines Expansion (4.45 Bcf/d non-FTA), CCL Stage IV (3.29 Bcf/d), Lake Charles Exports (2.33 Bcf/d), Argent LNG (3.54 Bcf/d), Rio Grande LNG Train 6 (0.85 Bcf/d), Sabine Pass Stage V, and Magnolia LNG (1.23 Bcf/d). (Source: energy.gov, accessed 2026-10-24)